Scientific research shows that climate change is making hurricanes like Hurricane Helen more intense.
Helen made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane Thursday night, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and dangerous storm surge to the Southeast. As of Friday afternoon, the estimated death toll from the storm was more than 40 in four states.
This comes about two and a half months after Hurricane Beryl, which peaked as a Category 5 storm, wreaked havoc across the Caribbean and the United States, killing dozens of people.
The proportion of hurricanes in these more intense categories 4 and 5 is expected to increase as the planet warms. According to the latest reports By the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a climate science authority respected by the United Nations. Maximum hurricane wind speeds are also expected to increase.
“These hurricanes are getting bigger and stronger, and that's because of simple energy transfer,” said Claudia Benitez Nelson, a climate scientist at the University of South Carolina.
Benitez-Nelson explained that a hotter planet means more energy can be transferred from the oceans into the atmosphere.
“So what are hurricanes? They're big chunks of energy, and that energy is now being fed into a tropical cyclone,” she said.
This transition effect is expected to continue and worsen as Earth's temperature increases.
Estimates of how much benefit you get may vary. But if the Earth warms by about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial levels, maximum hurricane wind speeds could increase by about 5 percent, said a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Tom Knutson said. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Noting the increase in wind speeds, scientists earlier this year added Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Anemometer, saying the currently used Categories 1 through 5 were “inadequate” as hurricanes continue to intensify. proposed to do so.
Benitez-Nelson said that in addition to making hurricanes stronger overall, climate change is also making them intensify more quickly, potentially giving people less time to prepare.
Hurricane Helen has moved from a Category 1 storm to a Category 4 storm.within 1 dayin unusually warm seawater temperatures.
Benitez Nelson, a member of climate education organization Science Mums, said rising global temperatures would lead to warmer ocean temperatures, which would lead to “more effective heat transfer.”
She added that this “really helps rotate the hurricane as it goes from a tropical cyclone to a hurricane, making it even more powerful and intensifying more quickly.”
Knutson noted that in addition to promoting increased wind speeds, climate change could also increase rainfall during hurricanes.
“As the climate warms, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is systematically increasing, so storms are essentially getting bigger and heavier,” Knutson said. Precipitation rate. ”
He added that modeling shows that for every 1.8 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in sea surface temperature in areas where hurricanes occur, rainfall increases by an average of 7 percent.
Earth's surface is already averagely warm Compared to pre-industrial levels, it is about 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius), but the actual level of warming may vary between regions and between land and ocean.
Benitez-Nelson added that as the hurricane strengthens, it could move further inland, including to places not used to dealing with hurricanes, because it won't disappear quickly.
“Hot air can hold more water,” she said. “And you're dumping a lot of water into places that aren't equipped to handle that amount of rainfall.”
She pointed to the impact of the debris from Hurricane Beryl. Vermont earlier this year. “It's ridiculous…but it's our future,” she said.
And beyond the effects of climate change itself on hurricanes, these storms can cause even more damage when combined with other climate impacts, such as sea level rise.
“Our oceans are rising, so of course when hurricanes come, it's going to have an impact, because the sea level is already higher and you add storm surge to it,” Jennifer Collins said. spoke. Professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of South Florida.
Collins expressed concern that this will cause significant damage in the future because people tend to focus on hurricane wind speeds rather than potential flooding.
“We've seen other storms in the past where one of these weaker storms has caused major flooding,” Collins said. “Honestly, I'm very concerned about these types of storms because people sometimes make evacuation decisions based on the wind speeds of the Safia Simpson Hurricane.”
Climate change is caused by human activities releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, which become trapped in the atmosphere and create a greenhouse effect that warms the planet. The burning of fossil fuels is the main cause of climate change, but other parts of the economy, such as agriculture and landfills, are also major contributors.
Benítez-Nelson said that “the biggest thing we can do” to prevent future climate-related damage is to reduce emissions.
