Since Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, concerns have grown in neighboring Moldova that Ukraine could become a target for Moscow.
Moldova, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet republic that is collaborating with Western countries and seeking to join the European Union. And both countries hope to eventually reunite the breakaway Russian-speaking territories, which count Moscow as their protector.
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After a brief war in the early 1990s, Transnistria declared independence from Moldova, but today’s pro-Western government remains adamantly opposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.
A boy runs past a statue of Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin in Tiraspol, the capital of Moldova’s Russian-backed Transnistrian breakaway region, on November 1, 2021. Since Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, a series of incidents have occurred in the country. Transnistria has regularly raised concerns that European Union candidate Moldova could also be targeted by Moscow. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
Transnistria’s independence has not been recognized by UN member states, including Russia, but the Kremlin-friendly territory is sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine, among others, and is home to a military base housing 1,500 Russians. This has become a source of tension during the war. army.
Why did Transnistria cause alarm?
The majority of Transnistria’s population of 470,000 speak Russian as their first language, and around 200,000 are Russian nationals who feel a deep connection to Russia, but most are also Moldovan nationals. In 2006, more than 95% of voters in Transnistria voted in a referendum that they wanted the country to join Russia, but the vote was not internationally recognized.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, some developments in Transnistria have led some to draw parallels with the pro-Moscow separatist movement in eastern Ukraine that has paved the way for a full-scale Russian offensive.
Just weeks after the invasion, a series of explosions shook Transnistria. Last year, an opposition leader campaigning for human rights was shot dead there. And this month, a helicopter was destroyed in the air at a military facility, with Transnistrian officials blaming a Ukrainian drone attack, but Moldovan authorities claiming it was a staged explosion aimed at escalating tensions. There is.
“The Russian Federation is planning further such actions” in Transnistria, Moldova’s reintegration policy agency said in a statement on Monday. The agency, which works on the reintegration of Transnistria into Moldova, said that while Russia is unable to attack Moldova militarily, “such actions are aimed at increasing panic, causing distrust in society and weakening the economy. ” he added.
The separatist region also made headlines last month when authorities used an unusual meeting of the Transnistrian parliament to appeal to Moscow for “protection” amid mounting pressure from Moldova. The appeal stopped short of requiring Russia to annex the territory, but it allayed fears in Moldova, which had downplayed the event as propaganda.
The Kremlin has always denied it was trying to destabilize Moldova, but last week Moldova expelled a Russian diplomat after Moscow opened six polling stations for Transnistria’s presidential election. did.
Does Russia have ambitions for Transnistria?
Russian forces have gained territory in Ukraine in recent months after Kiev’s counterattack failed to achieve much on the battlefield. However, to reach Transnistria from Ukraine, Russian forces would need to seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast, including the main port city of Odesa, and establish a land route into the region.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Moldova’s Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoy did not downplay the threat Russia poses to Moldova.
“It’s not a question of whether the Russians want to come and violate our sovereignty, it’s a question of whether they can do it,” Popsoy said. “As long as Ukraine resolutely resists and defends its territory, and as long as the West is prepared to provide Ukraine with sufficient support, we will remain safe.”
Moldova is facing repeated crises amidst wars in neighboring countries. These include missiles that accidentally landed on the territory, a severe energy crisis after Moscow drastically cut gas supplies, rampant inflation, and repeated anti-government protests by pro-Russian factions.
Alexandra Vaklu, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, said a military invasion would be in Russia’s interests because it has already destabilized Moldova “quite effectively” “without attacking Moldova.” He said that it may not be possible. “I can’t see it,” she added.
What can Putin actually do in the breakaway regions?
The Moldovan government has accused Russia of funding anti-government protests, interfering in local elections, and waging a massive disinformation campaign to overthrow the government and derail Moldova’s EU aspirations. It claims to be waging a widespread “hybrid war” against its own country.
Earlier this month, Moldova’s state intelligence agency uncovered “unprecedented” plans by the Russian government to launch a new, large-scale destabilization campaign as Moldova prepares for an EU accession referendum and presidential elections. announced that they had collected data to show the results.
“We look to society and our partners to help us continue to build resilience…so we can more effectively prevent and combat all these hybrid threats.” said Popsoy.
Are helicopter accidents a cause for concern?
After Transnistrian authorities blamed Ukraine for the helicopter incident, Moldova quickly denied the attack had taken place and called it an “attempt to cause fear and panic in the region.”
The Department of Rehabilitation said that after analyzing footage of a parked helicopter bursting into flames, there were indications that the fire was “caused by factors other than the drone,” but it did not say what caused the fire.
Popsoy, 37, said the incident, which occurred on the final day of Russia’s highly orchestrated presidential election, “looks staged,” but given the impending war in Russia, “the hysteria and panic is understandable. ” he said.
Moldova said the helicopters had been phased out for several years. “It looks like they added fuel to the helicopter… just to make the effects of the movie explode better,” Popsoy said.
Will the old “frozen conflicts” be thawed soon?
Ion Marandici, an academic who studies conflict resolution and Eastern Europe, is skeptical that Transnistria will be reintegrated into Moldova by 2030, when Moldova hopes to become a full member of the EU. said.
“The conflict can be managed well, but it cannot be resolved at this point because of deep-seated mistrust and sacrifices neither side is willing to make,” he said. “Reintegration would mean the weakening of (Moldova’s) pro-EU parties and the consolidation of political opponents.”
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Mr. Popsoy said that the Transnistrian issue does not preclude Moldova’s accession to the EU “per se”, and that this process would rather encourage the breakaway region to reintegrate with Moldova, as 70% of Transnistria’s exports end up in Moldova. Popsoy said the EU had assured Moldova that it could make it more attractive. EU.
“We are fully committed to a peaceful resolution,” he said. “There is a constant struggle there between the more rational, economically driven people, and the more pro-Russian hawks of the security establishment who are seeking further escalation and trying to cause problems.”
