Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah died. What does this mean for the Middle East, US foreign policy, Iran, and Israel?
The answers can be categorized according to the interrelated dynamics of regional geopolitics, US interests, and the domestic politics of the US, Iran, and Israel.
From a regional geopolitical perspective, conservative Sunnis are likely to praise Israel, with support from the Biden administration, for deftly disempowering Hezbollah in about a week. of Exploding pagers and walkie talkies It immobilized Hezbollah operatives and destroyed their command and control capabilities.
Hezbollah is vital to both the Iranian regime and Bashar al-Assad's regime. Helped save money During the Syrian civil war. Baring the fangs of Saudi Arabia and its allies is a source of joy for Saudi Arabia and its allies, as it tilts the balance of power in their favor, at least for now.
At the root of the struggle for regional hegemony, in which Iran and Saudi Arabia primarily participate through proxies, is ideological competition between Sunni and Shiite sects. This is a score of 1 for the Sunnis, who have suffered utter humiliation by failing to overthrow the Assad regime and defeat the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
America's interests here also align with Israel's successes, especially after the horrific October 7 attack. This includes freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab, and Arabian Sea. The Houthis continue attack ships in the red sea In retaliation for Israel's military operation in Gaza. The United States does not want to escalate conflicts in the Middle East, especially involving Israel.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the last thing any candidate wants is another conflagration in the Middle East, especially incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
Meanwhile, these recent events represent a significant demoralizing blow to the Iranian regime. Already facing domestic protests, particularly by women against its repressive hijab policy, Iran's Shiite theocratic regime is losing credibility.
The regime is Hezbollah's “godfather” and major financier. But the regime is very adept at one thing: survival. It cannot be written off yet.
Even before the Hamas attack on October 7, Israeli domestic politics was already in trouble due to Benjamin Netanyahu's government. thousands of Israelis I've been protesting He faced off against Prime Minister Netanyahu for several weeks. Israel's internal divisions continue to this day.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is fighting for his political career and the legal scandal in which he is embroiled. It is in his interest not only to continue fighting Hamas and Hezbollah (and by proxy Iran), but also to escalate conflicts throughout the region. That would provide an ideal deterrent to Prime Minister Netanyahu's legal and political challenges.
But by escalating the conflict too much regionally, Israel risks uniting its many enemies rather than dividing them.
In US politics, the Biden administration needs to express further concern over civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. Although public opinion is divided primarily along partisan lines, President Biden and Harris are unfavorable in the eyes of many American Muslims and progressives.
The prevailing view among them is that the Biden administration has made no compromises in supporting Israel by showing genuine concern and remorse for civilian casualties in both Gaza and Lebanon. .
Finally, the Iranian regime will assess these events and losses in the light of its greatest need to achieve nuclear status. In other words, Iran likely believes it needs nuclear weapons now more than ever. That should cause a lot of anxiety for everyone.
Dr. Hayat Alvi is an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College.
