After a week off, Formula 1 is gearing up to return with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix this weekend.
As the teams and drivers approach the tricky Baku City circuit, there’s an intriguing storyline unfolding.
Can McLaren Secure the Title in Baku?
Will this week decide the title race?
McLaren certainly hopes so.
With a hefty 337-point lead over Ferrari, McLaren is in a position to clinch the Constructors Championship this week.
Let’s look at the scenarios.
With three F1 sprint races and eight Grand Prix left, the maximum points any team can accumulate now stands at 389. Points are awarded as follows: 25 for a Grand Prix win, 18 for second place in a Grand Prix, 8 for a sprint race win, and 7 for second in a sprint. A 1-2 finish in a Grand Prix counts for 43 points, while a similar result in a sprint yields 15 points.
Hypothetically, if Ferrari (or another team chasing McLaren) were to finish 1-2 in every Grand Prix and sprint, they could score 389 points.
Post-Azerbaijan, only 346 points would remain available, meaning McLaren needs to be ahead by at least 346 points to secure the Constructors Championship in Baku. With 12 Grand Prix wins already this year, McLaren has the most victories, and should they be tied with another team after Abu Dhabi, they would retain the title due to their tiebreaker advantage from wins.
Red Bull is McLaren’s closest competitor in this regard, but given that Max Verstappen has three wins, they can’t catch up with eight races left.
So, how can McLaren clinch this weekend?
The easiest route is to finish 1-2 in Azerbaijan. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have teamed up effectively seven times this season. Their success would solidify McLaren’s position.
If they don’t lock out the front row, they’ll need to outscore Ferrari by nine points. They could outscore Mercedes and Red Bull, who sit at 357 and 378 points, respectively, but against Mercedes, they would need to score more than 11 points, and versus Red Bull, that margin is 32 points.
Now, let’s say Charles Leclerc wins in Azerbaijan. That could put a big wrench in McLaren’s plans. Even if McLaren finishes second and third (adding up to 33 points), Leclerc’s win would bring Ferrari to 305 points, leaving McLaren short.
They’d be just shy of the required 346 points.
The best scenario for McLaren is to lock out the front row, but if they end up with P1 and P3, they could still celebrate a title in Baku.
However, there’s more happening than just McLaren’s potential title this weekend.
The last time the F1 grid went racing, McLaren’s strategy was brought into question. During the Italian Grand Prix, Norris and Piastri were trying to catch up to Verstappen, with team orders directing Piastri to let Norris through. A slow stop for Norris meant he dropped behind Piastri, leading to some tense moments in the pit lane.
In the end, both drivers acknowledged that team culture at McLaren prioritizes the team above individual positions.
But questions remain about where to draw the line with “Papaya rules.” Verstappen’s reaction—”Ha! Is it because he stopped slowly?”—caught quite a bit of attention.
The team’s goal is to give its drivers the freedom to battle for the championship, but as long as Ferrari is hot on their trails, maintaining harmony is crucial.
Once the title is settled, perhaps the usual rules will change.
Will Red Bull and Verstappen Face Surprises Again?
Many people take the opportunity to relax during a week off.
Max Verstappen, however, is not most people.
While F1 was on pause, Verstappen was busy at the historic Nürburgring in Germany, working toward securing a DMSB permit to race in GT3 events. Over the weekend, he not only took a theory exam but also competed in a truck, finishing seventh in the CUP3 category.
“Everything went smoothly. DMSB has allowed us to race,” Verstappen said.
This week, he’s back on the F1 grid, eager for another shot at victory.
Following his dominant win in Monza, Verstappen maintained that it didn’t mean they would dominate moving forward, suggesting that Monza may have played to RB21’s specific strengths.
“We’re still relying a bit on the track. Here, it’s a bit tricky. Our cars tend to perform better in low to medium downforce situations. So while we can’t just assume we will dominate, we are beginning to understand our needs better,” he said.
Baku, known for its combination of high downforce corners and the longest straight in F1, might favor Red Bull, allowing them to play to their strengths.
Verstappen could very well find himself surprised once more.
Concerns About Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli
The Italian Grand Prix was a tough outing for Kimi Antonelli.
After finishing 16th in the previous race, many hoped he’d perform better at Monza, but he faced challenges. A five-second penalty for pushing Alexander Albon off the track put him in a tough spot.
He crossed the line in eighth but ended up ninth after penalties.
His weekend worsened during FP2 as he found himself in the gravel at Lesmo, ending his practice early.
Not the kind of performance his team principal would want to see.
“This weekend has been overwhelming. You can’t expect to perform well when you’re sidelined like that,” said Toto Wolff.
Wolff remains supportive, optimistic about Antonelli’s future, but his remarks carry weight since Antonelli hasn’t secured a contract for next season yet.
There’s speculation that Mercedes may announce a new deal before the season ends, but he needs to show enhanced performance. Since his podium finish in Canada, Antonelli has only scored points in two out of the subsequent races.
Keeping an Eye on the Midfield Battle
Don’t overlook the battle for midfield supremacy.
Heading into Baku, Williams is leading the charge with 86 points, firmly in fifth place in the Constructors’ standings, while Aston Martin sits in sixth with 62 points, just ahead of the Visa Cash App Racing Bulls in seventh.
Sauber is in eighth with 55 points, and HAAS rounds out the points at ninth with 44.
At this point, only 42 points separate fifth place from ninth, making the fight for midfield positions likely to produce some thrilling narratives for the remainder of the season starting in Azerbaijan.
