How Mercedes can secure the Constructors’ title in São Paulo
Kimi Antonelli made history at Sunday’s Mexico City Grand Prix, becoming Formula 1’s youngest Drivers’ Champion.
Now Mercedes can turn its attention to another major goal: the Constructors’ Championship. The team had only a narrow chance of wrapping up the title in Mexico, but the numbers look more favorable ahead of next weekend’s race at Interlagos.
What Mercedes needs to do in São Paulo
Antonelli’s third-place finish in Mexico City, together with George Russell’s sixth place, leaves Mercedes with 630 points. Ferrari is the only team that can still catch them, and trails by 126 points with four race weekends remaining:
- Mercedes: 630 points
- Ferrari: 504 points
Each remaining weekend uses the standard Grand Prix format, with no Sprint race. A team can score a maximum of 43 points: 25 for a win and 18 for second place.
To clinch in Brazil, Mercedes needs to leave with a lead of at least 129 points. After the São Paulo race, only three rounds would remain, offering a maximum of 129 points. Mercedes also has the first tiebreaker secured: the team has won 12 races this season, compared with Ferrari’s two. So even if the teams ended level on points, Mercedes would prevail on race wins.
The current gap is 126 points, meaning Mercedes needs to add at least three to its advantage in Brazil.
A one-two finish would do it comfortably. If Antonelli and Russell take first and second, Mercedes would score 43 points and reach 673. Even if Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton finished third and fourth, Ferrari would earn 27 points and move to 531. That would leave Mercedes 142 points clear.
Mercedes could also clinch with a first-and-third finish. That would bring its total to 670. If Ferrari finished second and fourth, it would reach 534, leaving a 136-point gap.
A first-and-fourth result would be enough, too. Mercedes would add 37 points and move to 667. If Ferrari took second and third, it would score 33 points and reach 537. The difference would be 130 points, just enough to secure the championship.
The calculations get more complicated if Ferrari wins in Brazil. Hamilton has enjoyed plenty of success at Interlagos, and a Ferrari one-two would keep the title fight alive until Las Vegas. Ferrari would collect the maximum 43 points and move to 547. Even if Mercedes finished third and fourth, it could not build a lead of 129 points.
If either Hamilton or Leclerc wins, Mercedes can still clinch, but both Russell and Antonelli would need to finish on the podium, with the other Ferrari driver eighth or lower. A Ferrari win and an eighth-place finish would give the team 29 points, taking it to 533. Mercedes finishing second and third would earn 33 points and lift its total to 663, leaving a 130-point margin.
The margins are tight. If one Ferrari driver wins and the other finishes seventh, Ferrari would score 31 points and reach 535. Even with Mercedes taking second and third, the Silver Arrows would have a 128-point lead—one point short of clinching.
How likely is a Mercedes clinch?
Mercedes has several possible routes to the title in São Paulo: a one-two, a first-and-third, or a first-and-fourth. Those outcomes seem within reach, particularly before considering what Ferrari might do.
The team has locked out the front row three times this season, in Australia, China and Monza. It has also recorded a first-and-third in Austria and a first-and-fourth in Japan. So, yes, the results Mercedes needs are possible.
What about Qatar and Abu Dhabi?
There is another uncertainty hanging over the final part of the schedule. The season is currently due to end with the Qatar and Abu Dhabi Grands Prix, but tensions in the Middle East—and reports that the United States may expand operations after next week’s midterm elections—have raised questions about whether those races will go ahead.
Formula 1 and the FIA expect the events to take place as planned, though other events in the region have already been called off. On Friday, organizers of the 2027 Dakar rally said the event would instead be held in Portugal and Morocco in January.
If both Qatar and Abu Dhabi were canceled, only two races would remain, including São Paulo. A maximum of 86 points would then be available. With a 126-point lead over Ferrari, Mercedes would already have clinched the Constructors’ Championship in that scenario.
