An early look at Fox News’ 2024 Presidential Power Rankings predicts Georgia and Arizona to be the closest states. These states were once considered Republican strongholds. Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have all hovered between red and blue for years, making it difficult to determine which candidates voters in each state will choose in 2024.
“This was the closest we got last time,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate and governor editor at Cook Political Report. Florida is a “2000 result.”
Twenty-four years ago and six elections ago, Florida was divided among currently solid Republican states like Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, and now solidly Democratic states like Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico. Similarly, it was a presidential battleground state.
“both [Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore] They used these different campaign tactics and campaign memorabilia to speak to specific voters,” said Austin Wright, director of the Museum of Democracy.
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Residents cast their votes in Brooklyn, New York. (Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu Agency, Getty Images)
The Museum of Democracy in New York houses more than 1.25 million items. Wright said that in the 2000 Florida election, Gore used the Gore-Lieberman yarmulke to cater to Florida’s large Jewish population. Mr. Bush campaigned on his Texas roots to sway more rural voters in Florida.
“Some of the photos of Mr. Bush in Texas campaign attire…we think that contributed to the ruralization of the Panhandle,” Wright said.
In 2000, Bush narrowly won Florida, prompting a recount. With Florida undecided, Mr. Gore received 266 electoral votes to Mr. Bush’s 246. The recount, certification process and legal battle continued for more than a month. The results ultimately showed that Mr. Bush won Florida by a margin of 537 votes over Mr. Gore.
After the results were confirmed, President Bush said, “I’m grateful to the United States and grateful that we were able to resolve our differences in the election in a peaceful way.”
Since 2000, Florida’s population has changed. The Cuban and Venezuelan populations are growing. In many cases, they fled the country because of socialism and now tend to lean toward the Republican Party.
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“I think there’s a misconception in popular culture that there’s this monolithic Hispanic community,” said Gerhard Peters, co-director of the American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “Cuban-Americans in South Florida have historically been very reliable Republicans.”
The number of retirees is also increasing in Florida. Former President Trump won the state by an 11-point margin in 2020 among voters 65 and older.
“For me, is Biden even going to play there?” Taylor said. “Just looking at trends alone, it’s hard to imagine it being very competitive.”
The last time Florida voters supported a Democratic candidate was in 2012, when President Barack Obama ran for re-election against former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
“I still think of Florida as a battleground state,” Peters said. “I think Florida is very fluid in many ways. We’ve seen a lot of migration to Florida from other states.”
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You’ll see a ballot box in Denver. (RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post, Getty Images)
Colorado is another state that has experienced population changes over the years. Bush won the state in 2000 and 2004. It was a swing state during the Obama administration. Currently, Colorado is in the all-blue category.
“Colorado is a great example of how demographics have changed,” Wright said. “I think President Obama’s sentiment of ‘hope and change’ contributed a lot to that. Art has had a huge impact on giving young people hope that this country can be a better, different place. I think I gave it to you.”
Denver grew by 20% between 2010 and 2020, with most minorities moving to the city. Many suburban voters are wealthy and college-educated. Suburban voters have tended to lean toward Democrats since Trump became the standard-bearer for the Republican Party.
“A lot of suburban voters used to vote Republican because of their pocketbook,” Peters said. “Many of those voters, especially educated women voters, have turned away from the Republican Party.”
Suburban voters are also influencing presidential elections in other states.
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A table is shown for the Republican Party in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Olivier Toulon/AFP via Getty Images)
“Colorado to me could probably be Arizona in a few years if we see similar trends,” Taylor said. “Arizona still has a sizable number of Republicans, so I think they’re solidly in the mix.”
Arizona has the largest county and largest suburbs in the United States. The Hispanic vote is also increasing, with a majority leaning toward Democrats.
“These campaigns have not only staged a lot of ads that only speak Spanish, but we’ve also seen a lot of buttons and posters that really touch on these different groups,” Wright said.
Another western state is also in the battleground state column.
“We’re doing an awful lot in Nevada,” President Biden said during a recent campaign stop in the battleground state.
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Former President Trump stands on stage in Nevada. (John Gerczynski/AFP via Getty Images)
Nevada trended red in the 1980s. Since 2008, a majority of voters have chosen Democratic candidates. Like Arizona, this state is also seeing an increase in the number of Hispanic voters.
A minority in Georgia is also supporting Democrats. From 1996 to his 2020, Republican presidential candidates won the state. Atlanta’s booming job market has attracted a younger, more diverse electorate, and it is now home to nearly half of the state’s population.
“The digital aspect has really changed the way people campaign, and I think in a place like Georgia, specifically targeting young people, it’s changed that whole dynamic,” Wright said. he said.
“A few cycles before the presidential election, we didn’t even think about Arizona and Georgia. But when you look at people moving to more diverse, college-educated states, they put those states on the map. “Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, on the other hand, have very large white working-class voters,” Taylor said. “Places that were more reliably Democratic, like Wisconsin, are now on the map.”
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Former President Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Waterford Township, Michigan. (Javin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
As Mr. Trump gained momentum within the Republican Party, the white working-class vote shifted to the right.
“Pennsylvania is one of the most important battleground states in the nation,” President Trump said at a National Rifle Association event in Harrisburg.
Some political scientists argue that Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election because she was weak in Rust Belt states.
“I think the key for Democrats and Joe Biden is to show up and campaign in these states and not take them for granted,” Peters said.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain competitive because of their large numbers of suburban and minority voters.
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President Biden and former President Trump (Jim Watson | Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley told reporters after a rally in Elgin, South Carolina, “Right now, every poll in the general election shows that Trump can’t beat Biden in Wisconsin. “I know. I beat Wisconsin by 15 points.” “Why would I do anything other than continue the fight and make sure the American people who don’t want Trump and Biden to speak up and be heard?”
Demographic changes are affecting many battleground states, but political preferences are also shifting across the country.
“The coalitions of people that make up political parties change, and I think we’re in the middle of that right now. Political scientists are debating what the Republican Party is or what the Democratic Party is. Who are those people?’ And I think we’re seeing that change before our eyes,” Peters said.
Battleground states could change again in the coming years. Minnesota is trending toward Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, a shift driven by farmers and farm workers who tend to dislike Democratic messages on environmental issues and gun policy.
Texas could go in a different direction. Republicans have won by narrow margins in recent elections. It’s not just Hispanic and younger voters who are moving to the state. An increasing number of liberal voters are also moving from other states, such as California.
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North Carolina has been trending red in recent years, but could once again become a battleground state. While many wealthy urban voters moved to the state during the 2020 pandemic, dozens of deep-red rural counties lost population.
