There are only a few days left until we watch the Chiefs take on the 49ers in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
You wouldn’t normally bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially in the postseason, but the Chiefs’ offense this season didn’t look like a typical Patrick Mahomes offense. The Niners are a complete team, and there’s no guarantee the Chiefs can repeat 2020 in Miami.
How can the Chiefs beat the Niners in Sunday’s Super Bowl? Who better to tell us that than their NFC West rivals?
Mookie Alexander, Field Gulls
It pains me to say this as a Seattle Seahawks fan, but the San Francisco 49ers have dynasty potential. Four NFC Championship appearances in five seasons highlights how much Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have done in returning the Niners to power. The only thing missing is a Super Bowl win, which I really hope doesn’t happen. A 5-0 record against the Seahawks over the past two seasons (148-72 combined) is bad enough.
That being said, the 49ers have arguably the best roster in the NFL, if not necessarily the deepest at every position. Overall, San Francisco has the best or best running back (Christian McCaffrey), fullback (Kyle Juszczyk), wide receiver (Deebo Samuel), tight end (George Kittle), left tackle (Trent Williams), and edge. There is a consensus that it is among the best. Rusher (Nick Bosa), Outside Corner (Charvarius Ward), Middle Linebacker (Fred Warner). Then there’s Brock Purdy. No matter what you think of him as a “system quarterback,” his stats match those from an MVP-eligible season. I think he runs the system very well.
With Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey staying for a full season, this is the best offense Kyle Shanahan has had as 49ers head coach. When you’re No. 1 in DVOA (1st passing, 2nd rushing), EPA/play, yards per play, and points per drive, there’s no arguing how good your offense is. Between Shanahan’s scheme and the elite talent he has at his disposal, it will be nearly impossible to contain San Francisco’s skill position players throughout the game. Injuries to Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams were certainly a big factor in their three-game losing streak, but they have avoided the catastrophic injuries that have derailed seasons so far this year.
As embarrassingly simple and cliché as it sounds, turnovers are the Chiefs’ best chance to slow down the 49ers’ offense. Kansas City’s defense struggled to generate takeaways in the regular season, but was able to score three points against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship. San Francisco has had nine turnover-free games this season (including the playoffs), but 11 of those 19 have come in losses to the Ravens, Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals. I expect Steve Spagnuolo to dig deeper into his bag of tricks and unleash as many coverage disguises on Brock Purdy as possible, forcing him to make more risky throws and bad decisions.
The 49ers’ offense has risen to juggernaut status, but their stout defense has taken a slight step back under first-year coordinator Steve Wilkes. They’re still 4th in DVOA and 10th in EPA/play, but surprisingly they’re 3rd in down conversion rate, near the bottom of the league, and a modest 15th in run-to-run DVOA. Both the Packers and Lions attacked around San Francisco’s defensive line. Statistically the weakest point. It’s worth noting that in last year’s 44-23 win over the 49ers, the Chiefs had three outside rushing touchdowns (two with Mecole Hardman and one with Clyde Edwards-Helaire). That’s what I decided. Something similar could happen this Sunday, but Hardman may not trust the ball considering his last two touches resulted in fumbles. Isaiah Pacheco’s physical running style could cause some problems for the 49ers.
Finally, San Francisco’s pass coverage has shown signs of vulnerability this postseason, and much of that can be attributed to the poor performance of the pass rush. In particular, Javon Hargrave and Chase Young haven’t had a sack or a quarterback hit over the past two games, which puts a lot of stress on Nick Bosa’s shoulders. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are excellent defenses in the middle of the field, and the 49ers rank first in DVOA. Steve Wilkes loves zone coverage, and if there’s a combo that even the best zone defenses can leverage, it’s Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who had 23 catches, 262 yards, and 3 catches on a recent playoff trip. Scored 1 touchdown.
Seth Cox “Revenge of the Birds”
The Arizona Cardinals have seen the San Francisco 49ers up close and personal twice this season, the first being an early season game against then-Josh Dobbs’ Cardinals team.
It was a bit of a surprise and showed some flaws that have been seen in many of the Niners’ games this season. The Cardinals had Dobbs rush for 105 yards while throwing for 265 yards and two touchdowns.
But it was the Niners’ offense that set the tone for everything they did. Brock Purdy had an easy day going 20/21 for 283 yards and a touchdown, but it was the running game that made everything look easy for the Niners.
Christian McCaffrey had 20 carries for 106 yards and three touchdowns. His long was only 18 yards, but his ability to run for 5 yards per carry allowed them to run efficiently all day long.
Brandon Aiyuk was dominant, gaining 148 yards on six catches, while McCaffrey had seven catches for 71 yards and added a touchdown.
This was the first indication of how easy their offense could make things look, but it also showed that their focus on defense could temporarily slow down.
In the second matchup with Kyler Murray back, the holes in the defense were once again exposed.
With Murray, the Cardinals gained 234 yards on 30 carries, averaging 7.8 yards per carry.
They did a great job of limiting the passing game, intercepting Murray twice and taking three sacks, but the fact that the Niners’ defense seems to live and die by big plays rather than being solid for 60 minutes. was shown again.
That’s the theme of this Super Bowl. Can the Niners defense avoid these lulls against one of the best defenses in the NFL?
Although the Chiefs lack skilled players, they will be a unique matchup as they have a strong offensive line, a good run game, and one of the best players in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs offense has been better in the playoffs, but it’s not the high-octane offense we’re used to seeing.
In fact, they rely heavily on a strong defense, which could play into the Niners’ hands.
The Niners offense is efficient in both the run game and the passing game, but they need to make sure Brock Purdy doesn’t make the mistakes he made the past two games.
It’s possible they could get away with it again, but the Chiefs are good at capitalizing on mistakes, and their defense hasn’t allowed 400 yards in a game all season.
It’s a much different matchup than Super Bowl 54, but it could ultimately come down to Patrick Mahomes’ play and whether the Niners can get some defensive rest during the game.
If the Chiefs are going to win their third Super Bowl in six seasons, they’ll need their best defensive effort of the season against the best offense in the NFL.
Kenneth Arthur, Turf Showtime
The 2023 San Francisco 49ers are the epitome of Kyle Shanahan’s team, the closest realization of his vision of what he wanted the Niners to be when he got there, and powered by the most talented running back in the NFL. It is an offense that ignites fire with a run game. A defense that dominates with its ability to eliminate backs and passing attacks. Basically, it all started with Christian McCaffrey on offense and Fred Warner on defense, and since San Francisco ended up making it to the Super Bowl without any major injuries (aside from safety Talanoa Hufanga), the 49ers will be You have to put up with it or shut up. It all comes down to Kyle Shanahan’s strategic ability to build a championship roster and a consistently winning game plan.
No one knows that better, or has suffered more because of it, than Rams head coach Sean McVay.
The two, longtime friends and now NFC West rivals, have played 15 times on their respective teams, with Shanahan winning nine of the last 10 regular season meetings. There is. The only wins came when both the Rams and 49ers rested their starting pitchers in Week 18 of this season, but otherwise Shanahan will likely continue his winning streak against opponents. When LA finally made the leap to a Super Bowl championship in 2021 with Matthew Stafford, it was because the team added McCaffrey, some upgrades on defense, and Jimmy Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy and stay healthy. That was before they acquired Brock Purdy, who was an upgraded version of Brock Purdy. He makes unscheduled improvisational plays and moves the pocket to get the ball to San Francisco’s elite playmakers.
Purdy’s job is very simple. He has four to six All-Pro players around you. Give the ball to McCaffrey, throw the ball to an elite pass catcher, and don’t turn the ball over. That’s been one of his Achilles’ heel: Purdy has one of the highest turnover-worthy plays in the NFL, but the Chiefs rank 27th in takeaways, so he’s not trying too hard to be a hero. Do not. Defensively, the 49ers’ pass rush isn’t where it should be, but if Warner and the others can neutralize Travis Kelce, there aren’t many other places for Patrick Mahomes to go.
This is Shanahan’s best chance yet to win a Super Bowl, tying him with McVay. Until then, he’s just a guy who can’t win a Super Bowl.
Will his best expression representing “The Kyle Shanahan Team” seal the deal?
