Game updates: The New York Giants will no longer have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft after the Cleveland Browns lost to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday.
Cleveland's loss means a top-three pick is guaranteed.
The final weekend of the 2024 NFL season has arrived.
For some teams, this is their last chance to qualify for the playoffs.
For others, it means one more game before the offseason begins and one final game to solidify their spot in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Four teams — new england patriots, tennessee titans, cleveland browns,and new york giants — Enters Week 18 with 3 wins and 13 losses. These four teams have the best chance of acquiring the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
There are also 5 teams. jacksonville jaguars, carolina panthers, new york jets, chicago bears,and las vegas raiders — Enters Week 18 with a 4-12 record. However, due to the strength of schedule tiebreaker, neither of these teams has a chance of acquiring the No. 1 pick, as New England holds a huge advantage in this tiebreaker. More details later.
How can the Patriots land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
For lack of a better term, the Patriots are in control of their own destiny when it comes to acquiring the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. with loss buffalo bills New England will lock up the No. 1 pick on Sunday.
However, with the Bills locked into the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, Buffalo has already indicated that Josh Allen will only be briefly in this game. Although unlikely, there is a scenario in which the Patriots don't lose on Sunday, meaning other paths to the No. 1 overall pick are also worth mentioning.
New England can secure the No. 1 pick if the game against the Bills ends in a tie. If tied with Buffalo, the Titans either win or tie Buffalo. houston texansif the Browns win or tie. baltimore ravenstied with the New York Giants philadelphia eaglesThe Patriots acquired the No. 1 pick. They can also earn the No. 1 pick with a tie, a Titans win or tie, a Browns tie, and a Giants win or tie. Finally, a tie, a Titans tie, a Browns win or tie, and a Giants win or tie could earn the No. 1 pick.
Even if the Patriots win on Sunday, they can still get the No. 1 pick if the Titans, Browns and Giants all win. All four teams have records of 4-13, but the Patriots currently hold a significant advantage in the tiebreaker. This is the Strength of Schedule (SOS). Currently, New England's SOS is .467, Tennessee is .515, Cleveland is .540, and New York State is .551.
When determining draft position, the lower the SOS, the higher the draft pick.
New England's huge advantage in this category is why they remain the driver of the No. 1 overall pick. That's why 4 to 12 teams are looking in from the outside in regarding the No. 1 pick. Of those teams, only Jacksonville has an SOS comparable to New England (.474), but the Jaguars can't make up the difference with one week left.
How can the Titans land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
There are two scenarios in which the Titans could acquire the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
First, if they lose to the Texans and the Patriots win or tie Buffalo, the Titans will get the No. 1 pick.
Even if the Titans tie with the Texans, Tennessee will lock up the No. 1 overall pick if the Patriots beat Buffalo, Cleveland beat or tie Houston, and New York beat or tied Philadelphia.
How can the Browns land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Cleveland's path to being selected No. 1 overall is a little more bumpy than Tennessee, but it's still possible.
If they lose to the Ravens, New England beats or ties Buffalo, and the Titans beat or tie Houston, the Browns get the No. 1 overall pick.
If both the Titans and Patriots win, and the Giants beat or tie the Eagles, Cleveland could tie for the No. 1 pick.
How can the Giants land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft?
Finally, the Giants enter the final week of the season with an outside shot at the No. 1 pick.
Because of the loss to the Eagles, the Giants will pick first if the Patriots beat or tie the Bills, the Titans beat or tie the Texans, and the Browns beat or tie the Ravens.
New York will also have the No. 1 pick if they tie with the Eagles and the Patriots, Titans and Browns all win.
