The race for the National League's third and final wild card spot likely won't get any closer with just one game separating the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves with 16 games remaining.
For now, we're going to leave the Chicago Cubs out of the discussion of which team will grab the No. 6 seed in the National League because they're still five games behind despite winning 13 of their last 19 games.
The Mets are getting a lot of credit for making this race more appealing – after all, they got off to a dismal start in the first few months, going 22-33.
But since May 30, they have the best record in the major leagues with a 58-33 record (.637 winning percentage).
Can the Mets keep this momentum going heading into October baseball? Let's take a look.
Odds of getting the 6th seed in the National League Playoffs
| team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Braves (79-67) | +190 |
| Mets (80-66) | +220 |
| Diamondbacks (82-64) | +360 |
| Padres (82-65) | +370 |
| Cubs (75-71) | 40/1 |
| Cardinals (73-72) | 100/1 |
Mets: Schedule challenges await
After back-to-back series against teams with a sub-.50 record, things get even tougher for the Mets as they close out the road with a three-game trip to Philadelphia, then return home for three games against the Nationals and four against the Phillies.
The Mets close the regular season with road games against Atlanta and Milwaukee, at which point the Brewers could clinch the NL Central title and the Wild Card spot, making it pointless to play.
What's most impressive about the Mets' run is that they've accomplished it without Kodai Senga, who has only pitched one game this year due to multiple injuries.
The team is hoping to have its ace back before the end of the regular season, with Senga eligible to return from the disabled list on Sept. 25, midway through the series against the Braves.
Braves: Injuries have an impact
The Braves are probably near the top, or at the top, of the list of the unluckiest teams this season.
All-Star relief pitcher Reinaldo Lopez was placed on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday, less than 24 hours before he was forced to leave a 12-0 win over the Nationals with shoulder inflammation.
Lopez (8-5) has the best ERA (2.08) among Atlanta's starting pitchers.
The Braves are already without 20-winner Spencer Strider and 2023 National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are currently on the injured list and have already missed at least two months of games, along with center fielder Michael Harris II and catcher Sean Murphy.
The good news for the Braves is that they'll play their toughest remaining opponents (Dodgers, Mets and Royals) at home with six-game trips to Cincinnati and Miami in between.
Best bets for the NL Wild Card
It would be quite a feat if the Braves could overcome all of their injuries and make the postseason, but missing them entirely would be more valuable.
FanDuel gives them a -135 chance of making the playoffs, giving them an implied probability of 57.5 percent.
Atlanta can claim one of the three wild-card spots, but they're already three games behind the Diamondbacks and 2.5 games behind the Padres, so their best chance is to beat the Mets.
The Mets' yes/no options are -165/+125, with odds of finishing in sixth place at +220.
Everything you need to know about MLB betting
According to Tankathon, their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .551 and currently have the toughest remaining schedule.
As a result, catching up with the Diamondbacks and Padres will be a tough task.
Still, their momentum could be enough to outperform Atlanta, and from a value standpoint, they could very well be considered the favorite to grab the final wild-card spot.
Best bet: Mets to finish 6th in the NL (+220, FanDuel)
