If the fields for the 2025 NCAA Tournament are set up and the Select Committee is believed, it should run through Auburn.
The Tigers (28-5) have earned the overall seed thanks to a great regular season, the very competitive Sec top.
Auburn may have been short on the SEC tournament, but his resume was strong enough to stack them up before the other No. 1 seed on the field.
The Duke Blue Devils (31-3) were tabbed as the second seed with Houston (30-4) and Florida (30-4) grabbing two other No. 1 seeds on a 68-team field.
Of the past 39 champions, 25 are No. 1 seed, and last year's championship featured two number ones at UConn and Purdue, so history teaches you to ignore these heavyweights at your own risk if you're playing in the pool.
But which heavyweights should you build? And where should you leave? Answer the following questions:
Auburn Tigers (+500)
They may be the top seed on the field, but Auburn is the third favorite to win the NCAA tournament behind Duke and Florida.
It may sound counterintuitive when Brackett's “best” team becomes their third favorite, but it's worth noting that the Tigers are 30/1 to win the National Championship when this market opens, and they aren't closer to a team that's as popular as Duke when it comes to betting masses.
The Tigers are ranked as the fourth-place seed in Kenpom's power rankings, but there are only a few differences between Auburn and the three previous teams.
I feel it's safe to throw a more troublesome pass than the other No. 1 seed and write down the Blue Pal Tigers and run deeper through the bracket.
Duke Blue Devils (+290)
Blue Devils were a wire-to-wire betting favorite to win the national Hampionship, although their odds drifted a bit when Cooper Flag got injured early in the ACC tournament.
Duke is still able to beat the ACC, and Flag is expected to be featured in the first round game of Blue Devils.
The Blue Devils went 21-10 against the Spread (ATS) and entered the tournament with a 11-game winning streak.
The price is too short at this point, but it's hard to see the Blue Devils tested until they get deep into the dance.
Houston Cougars (+650)
The Houston Cougars answered all the questions asked in 2024-25. They have broken through the Big 12, won the conference tournament, and are red hot with 13 wins in the bounce that appears in March's madness.
That said, given their path, supporting cougars at this price is a bit dangerous. Gonzaga is the eighth seed in Houston's bracket and has a sparkling statistical profile for its lower team. Kenpom has Zags as the ninth best team in the country.
Buyers should be careful.
Do you bet on college basketball?
Florida Gators (+390)
The new crown crown SEC champion's price is second favorite, second in Kenpom's power rankings after Duke, but it's surprising to see Florida as their second favorite.
Not only does Florida have a potential date with two-time defending champion UConn in Round 2, but Maryland is also getting steam as a dark horse.
The Gators are one of the best teams in the country, but this path seems too daunting to build your bracket around them.
