The Yankees and Dodgers have dominated right-handed pitching this season.
The Yankees have a weighted run creation plus (wRC+) of 130 against right-handed pitchers, 12 points higher than the Dodgers’ 118, who have the second-best batting lineup in MLB.
Will either right-handed starting pitcher be able to keep the lineup in check on Friday?
Cody Poteet showed his potential in his first two starts in a pinstriped uniform, holding the Giants and Guardians to a combined three runs over 11 innings.
But he hasn’t pitched at his top level (88 Stuff+ with 12 strikeouts in his first two starts) and has relied on a nibbling and sinker-focused style of pitching.
And that’s a problem because his sinker is not producing grounders as often (36%) and the Dodgers are second among MLB lineups in expected weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) against that pitch (.384).
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s splitball and curveball were barely hit in his first MLB season, his fastball was the opposite (80 Stuff+), more often resulting in hard-hit balls (45%), barrels (9%), and home runs (HR/FB 10%).
They can’t afford to show any weakness against the Yankees, considering Aaron Judge (30%) and Juan Soto (20%) rank first and second in barrel rate among eligible hitters and lead an unstoppable offense.
The Yankees also have a top-10 lineup that can score runs off of fastballs, splitters and curveballs, which will counter Yamamoto’s pitching tactics.
With the forecast calling for the wind to blow directly into center field, BallParkPal’s model projects a home run rate of +13 percent for this game.
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This could be a blow to Yamamoto, who was hit with fastballs by the powerful Yankees batting lineup.
Both bullpens are significantly overvalued based on projections, so I expect them to score in all nine frames on Friday.
play: Dodgers vs. Yankees: 9+ (-110, FanDuel)
