How Trump, or Kamala, could win, as all sides zero in on the debate

No one knows who will win this election.

With polls so close in the top battleground states, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris leading by just 1-2 points (statistically tied), a small number of voters or even the weather could sway the outcome.

Kamala's campaign has seemed stalled, perhaps because she didn't make any gains in the polls at the Democratic National Convention, but her joyful, vibe-focused campaign was already doing well during her first month as a candidate.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden's approval rating has soared to 48%, his highest since taking office. Some commentators have suggested the improvement in the economy is the reason for his approval rating, but that's not the case. Now that the president has left office, he's largely removed from criticism.

Trump and Kamala have sought a middle ground, with varying degrees of success

So the media has started hyping up next Tuesday's ABC debate, likely the only one between the two. If Trump can hold his own and press Harris for Biden's unpopular record, he'll win. If Harris can stand up to the former president and fend off his attacks, the gap in positions will close.

And, of course, the airwaves will be filled with partisan voices saying their candidate beat the others.

In an interesting thought experiment, The New York Times had two conservative anti-Trump columnists write opposing pieces reflecting on Trump and Harris' wins.

David Brooks, a close friend of Biden, The Trump camp “They had one job: define Kamala Harris as an elite San Francisco liberal, then define her as a middle-class moderate. The Trump campaign did very little. All they needed to do was play some 2019 footage of Harris sounding like a woke cliché, but they couldn't even argue…

“This mistake could have been fatal for the Republican Party, because Trump has a 46% approval rating, nearly the percentage of the popular vote he won in 2016 and 2020. Trump was never going to ride a majority wave to victory in 2024, so undercutting his opponent by a few points would have been beneficial.”

“But this is Trump's pattern: He seems to do everything he can to sabotage his campaign, and yet he still does surprisingly well in the election.”

Why Kamala Harris and Dana Bash were divided on the VP's first media interview

One reason is that, based on the past two elections, Trump's approval rating is up 2-3 percentage points from pre-election polls, and the pundits should know that by now.

Brooks said that while Trump may be “nasty,” the states with the highest growth rates are mostly governed by Republicans, including Florida, Texas, Idaho and Montana.

Furthermore, “Democrats control the media, universities, cultural institutions and government. Even large corporations headquartered in places like New York and San Francisco tend to favor Democrats.”

Next week's debate could determine the presidential ambitions of former President Trump and Vice President Harris. (Getty Images)

“The educated elites do this all the time. They promise to do something for us, but in the end they only serve themselves.”

And in my view, that has always been the secret to Trump's success: tapping into the resentment of a largely less-educated electorate who feels the game is being tampered with. What top journalists who tend to run in the same circles as Democrats (see: MSNBC's revolving door) understand the least is about Trump's loyal supporters.

That's why they've been so quick to dismiss Trump supporters as yahoos, racists, xenophobes and deplorables. And that's why MAGA supporters have overlooked the January 6th indictments and even Trump's softening stance on abortion. Trump has the right enemy.

Ross Douthat analyzes He said of a hypothetical Harris victory that the menu of liberal orthodoxy, what Ezra Klein called the “all-purpose bagel” ethos, has become the most powerful ideology in America.

“Wander around any Ivy League professor's lounge, any corporate human resources department, any Hollywood convention, any magazine editorial board, and you'll feel like you're living in a one-party state.”

The vice president largely followed “the Marie Condo playbook, applying the life-changing magic of tidying up to Democratic policy.” She didn't propose a sweeping centrist policy or seek a Sister Souljah-style confrontation with left-wing interests. Instead, she offered a form of progressive minimalism…

The Democratic Party, which has expanded its base fueled by a vague sense of left-wing orthodoxy, appears to be the driving force behind Vice President Harris' campaign. (Photo by Kenny Holston Pool/Getty Images)

“Her convention speech was notably Kondo-esque: short, sparse and lacking in specifics about almost everything except restoring Roe v. Wade, protecting middle-class rights, and keeping Trump out of the Oval Office. Interest groups got by on longhand gestures, not shoutouts and promises.”

Then there was the media strategy (he gave just one interview to CNN in total) and the abandonment of past left-leaning positions that have irritated even Republicans.

So how did she win? By freeing her party from trashy liberalism.

Subscribe to Howie's Media Buzzmeter podcast for the hottest news stories of the day

“If being a Democrat simply meant being pro-abortion and anti-Trump, it would be a lot more relaxed and, of course, fun,” Douthat said, and Trump supporters “have complained that Trump is too undisciplined — too undisciplined himself — to deliver a consistent anti-Harris message.”

Both columnists rely on assumptions that may or may not happen.

Therefore, it remains impossible to predict the outcome of the 2024 election.

Strip away everything else and Trump finds himself leading in the polls and in make-or-break debates.

Click here to get the FOX News app

Most debates don't live up to the expectations that come with them, but this one may decide who runs as the “change” candidate and takes the Oval Office – the former president or the current vice president.