By all accounts, Iran’s first direct attack on Israel was a victory for the Jewish state.
And the United States. And England and France. And it’s a total humiliation for Tehran.
However, many people are understandably still worried that this could lead to a wider war.
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles over the weekend, showing the world that Israeli military technology is far superior to its own. Iran no longer appears to be much of a threat, and Israel appears more than capable of defending itself.
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Anti-missile systems were activated after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel, seen from Ashkelon, Israel, on April 14. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)
Even as media attention shifted yesterday to Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, despite around-the-clock coverage of debates over admissible evidence, gag orders and jury selection, the Middle East loomed large as a potential powder keg.
Iran has been fighting a shadow war against Israel through its proxies for decades. Without the support of Hamas terrorists, there would not have been the barbaric massacre of Israelis on October 7th, nor the unimaginable arrests of civilian hostages. Without Hezbollah’s support, rockets would not have rained down from southern Lebanon, including during the recent Iranian attack. The same goes for Yemen.
In Iran’s view, the reason for the direct attack was retaliation. Israel has killed three top Iranian commanders in an attack on its consulate in Syria. Iranian leaders have vowed to fight back.
Now they had no idea how effective Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow missile defense systems would be in deterring their attacks. Many Israelis could have been killed, which would have further intensified the area.
In my own view, Iran’s objective was to save face and inflict only limited damage. The small-scale invasion of Israeli military bases strongly suggests this.
Dozens of people were injured, including a Bedouin Arab girl who was hospitalized, but no one was killed, which helped prevent the situation from escalating.
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After all, 99% of the weapons imported by Iran were destroyed outside Israeli airspace, with some failing on their own.
Moreover, Iran clearly telegraphed its timing and Biden knew exactly when to return to the White House from Rehovot, declaring the response over while some projectiles were still in the air. did.
This was a big victory for President Biden, who has vowed an “ironclad” defense of Israel, but after the congratulatory call to Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, word quickly leaked to the press that the president was urging the prime minister not to retaliate. .
“Let’s win” was one of the phrases attributed to Biden. Another was to “slow things down.”
This will force Prime Minister Netanyahu to make a critical choice.
Pro-Iranian supporters shout anti-Israel slogans in Palestine Square in Tehran on April 14 to celebrate Iran’s attack on Israel by the Revolutionary Guards. (Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
He could ignore Biden’s warnings and retaliate against Iran, leading to more airstrikes, especially if they result in casualties, which could easily escalate into a major war. (Israel says it will “offer an accurate price.”)
Alternatively, Prime Minister Netanyahu could not have done anything and allowed the situation to calm down. That risks allowing the Iranians to pay nothing for a sustained attack that left many Israelis terrified and spending the night in air raid shelters.
And there are further questions concerning Bibi’s self-interest. The longer the war lasts, the longer it will protect him from possible expulsion and accusation. Israel’s streets were filled with anti-Bibi demonstrators angry at Bibi’s attempt to neutralize the Supreme Court. Although things calmed down during the war, there have been some demonstrations since then, so Prime Minister Netanyahu may just be looking at the possibility of a gradual escalation as insurance.
There is no question that the huge death toll and widespread starvation in Gaza hurt Israel in the court of world opinion. Domestically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignored the president’s calls for restraint and increased civilian support, especially regarding a future invasion of the heavily populated city of Rafah, which also dealt a blow to the Biden administration domestically.
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But Iran’s brazen attack was a gift to Israel by showing the world that the Middle East’s only democracy is under continued attack by its Arab adversaries. And the administration’s promise to rush to defend the Jewish state with fighter jets and ships has brought the U.S. and Israel even closer despite previous tensions.
A final consideration is whether the air raid changed the atmosphere at the Capitol. The failure to provide more aid to Israel for months due to petty partisan politics seems even more pathetic in light of the Iranian salvo.
Iranians celebrate on the streets of Tehran after the Revolutionary Guards attack on Israel. (West Asia News Agency, via Reuters)
Both sides bear some responsibility, but House Republicans bear the heaviest burden because Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to vote on aid to Israel. Donald Trump’s opposition to a military aid bill that would strengthen border security has undermined efforts at compromise, but to what extent is debatable.
Does anyone really doubt that if Prime Minister Johnson tabled the Israel Bill today, it would pass by an overwhelming majority?
He told Fox News after meeting with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago that he hopes to bring the Israel bill to the floor this week. He also hinted that he wanted to include aid to Ukraine, a move that was decidedly unpopular within the Republican caucus, and Trump said it could take the form of a loan rather than an outright grant. .
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In return, Mr. Johnson wants to ease Mr. Biden’s energy policy, which would help potential projects in his Louisiana district, but it’s a pork barrel deal that seems like a small price to pay. .
There’s a lot of mutual pressure, a lot of tension, a lot of moving parts, but after an unconscionable delay, it’s time for Congress to get something done.
