Tampa, Florida (W.F.L.A.) — Hurricane Milton, which reached Category 5 strength on Monday, is headed toward Florida's west coast and could make landfall near or in Tampa Bay.
The National Hurricane Center predicted it could weaken to Category 3 before making landfall, but where it makes landfall could make a dramatic difference in how the Gulf is hit by storm surge.
Meteorologists at WFLA's Nexstar, based in Tampa, track “wobbles,” or small movements, on the system's path. Those wobbles will determine where the hurricane heads and how much damage Floridians can expect.
“If it hit St. Pete Beach, there would be 15 feet of water in the bay,” said Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for the Max Defender 8. “If it hits Longboat Key, which is 15, 20 miles south of there, there's very little water in the bay.”
As Milton continues to move forward, there may continue to be changes that impact its course.
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“We need to monitor wobble trackers out to 20 miles offshore,” Berardelli said.
At first glance, the movements may seem insignificant, but when these wobbles add up and lead to changes in the storm's path, they make a big difference.
This was the case when Max Defender 8 first launched Hurricane Ian's wobble tracker. Hurricane Ian was a Category 5 hurricane that was initially expected to hit Tampa Bay, but it “wobbled” farther south and made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida.
Since then, trackers have played an important role in other major hurricanes, such as Helen and now Milton.
Wobble Tracker monitors the movement of hurricanes and tropical cyclones by combining data from satellites, radar, predicted trajectories, and the storm's previous path, showing in real time how the path is changing. Masu.
The WFLA Wobble Tracker will continue to actively stream 24/7 until Milton makes landfall.
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