Limits of Military Action Against Iran’s Nuclear Program
The head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog recently asserted that much of Iran’s enriched uranium remains intact, and its nuclear facilities—many buried underground—cannot be completely neutralized through airstrikes. This statement emphasizes the limitations of military strategies in addressing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
During a press briefing, Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, expressed that the prospect of completely dismantling Iran’s nuclear program via military means appears unlikely. He stated quite firmly that a solely military resolution would be impossible.
“This is a very large program,” Grossi pointed out, highlighting the extensive network of facilities and expertise built up over the years. He noted that even after offensive actions, the materials and enrichment capacity would likely remain.
“We’re going to have to return to negotiations in some capacity,” he mentioned, which I think reflects a realistic approach.
In assessing the situation, nuclear inspectors indicated that most of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is still in its pre-attack state, primarily located at the Isfahan nuclear facility, with a small quantity at Natanz. “Our assumption is that the material is… in its original location,” Grossi remarked, which underscores the challenges at hand.
It’s worth emphasizing that much of Iran’s sensitive nuclear infrastructure is difficult to access and destroy. While U.S. and Israeli attacks have certainly impacted some areas of Iran’s nuclear program, they haven’t eradicated fundamental elements of it.
Analysts contend that enriched uranium stored in facilities like Isfahan is kept deep underground, often in mobile containers, complicating efforts to either destroy or secure it without direct access. This factor has been noted in earlier reports about the limitations of military action against Iran.
Kelsey Davenport, from the Arms Control Association, previously mentioned that the U.S. lacks clarity on the exact locations of all uranium stocks, raising concerns about their potential movement or dispersal.
According to Grossi, Iran possesses approximately 441 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, which could potentially fuel several nuclear weapons if further refined. Experts suggest that while the final step to reaching weapons-grade enrichment could be swift under optimal conditions, the overall process of weaponization and delivery extends beyond that.
Grossi also touched upon uncertainty surrounding a newly reported enrichment facility near Isfahan. This location is suspected to house centrifuges for producing enriched uranium, yet the International Atomic Energy Agency has not inspected it yet, leaving critical questions regarding its status and operation.
In summation, while efforts are ongoing, access to various sites has been hindered during the conflict, illustrating the overall limitations of current surveillance and understanding. Grossi admitted that there are still gaps in knowledge about certain Iranian plans, especially concerning unsupervised sites.
