If Trump gets convicted, what happens next? 

We all have a great normalcy bias: a refusal to contemplate impending disaster. So the idea that we could be facing an unprecedented constitutional crisis in November is hard to fathom. But nothing that’s been happening in American politics lately is normal.

In the case of Donald Trump, we are already well beyond the edge of the known world. Indeed, all things considered, it is unlikely that a former president — much less a potential next president — will be jailed. Of course, it is also unlikely that the former president will face four separate criminal trials. And yet, here we are.

So what will actually happen in President Trump’s New York criminal trial? What will happen if he is treated no better, but no worse, than other criminal defendants?

Let’s start with Trump’s difficulty following orders from judges in and out of court. Judge Juan Machan, who is presiding over President Trump’s New York criminal trial, said: issued a gag order The judge allowed Trump to continue attacking both him and the district attorney, but blocked him from attacking people such as witnesses and court officials.If President Trump violates this order, he will likely already have — You can be fined or jailed for contempt.

Depending on the seriousness of the violation, the judge will typically first issue a stern warning and possibly a fine. If the judge’s orders continue to be ignored, the penalties become increasingly severe. In some cases, for one day only, the judge may allow the person to clean up the contempt by humbly apologizing and promising not to do it again, but blatantly violates court orders repeatedly. Anyone who is rebellious will end up in jail, even a former president.

Judge Marchand is likely to become even less tolerant of President Trump’s courtroom abuses. Criminal judges do not allow defendants to dominate the courtroom, intimidate witnesses, or influence the jury.Mr Trump is have already been warned Regarding his actions, Melchan will respond decisively if this continues. This action is so serious that it threatens the integrity of the trial, so no enhanced penalties will be imposed. Instead, judges handle these situations by removing the disruptive defendant from the courtroom or ordering the defendant to be physically gagged.There’s also a Supreme Court. precedent It argues that in such circumstances, gagging an unruly defendant may be the “fairest and most reasonable” option.

Suppose Trump is convicted. Will he really go to jail?

Many people think this is impossible, but other defendants certainly could. In Trump’s case, he could theoretically be sentenced to anything between probation and parole. maximum penalty, maximum sentence If convicted on all charges, the sentence is 20 years in prison. However, the chances of getting 20 years in prison are very low, in fact, almost impossible. The maximum sentence Trump could face is probably four years, and his actual sentence is some reasons, it will probably be significantly less. There is a possibility that the sentence will be suspended, but given that President Trump has shown no remorse, it is likely that he will be sentenced to some kind of prison sentence.

A convicted defendant may be immediately sent to prison pending sentencing. This is actually common after a felony conviction. Alternatively, a convicted defendant can remain free until sentencing. A judge may also grant bail pending an appeal. This means that even after being sentenced, the defendant may remain out of custody until the appeal is heard.

Trump’s case would normally be a strong candidate for bail pending appeal. But much will depend on President Trump’s actions during and after the trial, as the courts will not release anyone, especially after a conviction, if the judge determines he is a threat to society.Judge Machan has already Warn President Trump “Resist from making comments or participating in conduct that could incite violence, cause civil unrest, or endanger the safety or well-being of any individual.” If Trump makes any effort to incite his supporters, like he did in front of Events of January 6, 2021he will almost certainly be sent directly to prison.

So are we likely to see Donald Trump gagged or jailed? It’s all up to Trump. Perhaps he will behave himself. But these are just as real possibilities for the former commander-in-chief as they are for other criminal defendants.

The rule of law can sometimes be a harsh mistress. It is highly likely that one of the two leading presidential candidates will be convicted and serve time in prison by November. That’s bad enough. But the constitutional crisis would be no greater if he were elected despite his conviction.

Indeed, it would be unprecedented to imprison a former president, and perhaps a future president. But these are unprecedented times, and unprecedented things will happen. Trump being sent to jail, specifically for contempt of court, is one of the less bizarre scenarios likely to play out in the coming months.

chris tuax He is a founding member of the Rule of Law Association and an appellate attorney.