Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick

There are two certainties in college basketball betting this year.

First, the Big Ten home team wins and covers.

The home team is 52-41-2 ATS in conference play in 56% of the games played.

Since the start of last season, Big Ten home teams are 132-97-3 ATS.

The Big Ten has won 72% of games this season with home court advantage, the second-highest home winning percentage in the conference.

Second, ranked teams on the road either don’t cover or don’t win.

Ranked teams are 81-102-2 ATS on the road this season, and those teams are 26-37-1 favorites.

So when I saw No. 14 Illinois score two points Saturday in College Park, Maryland, I couldn’t resist.

Illinois vs. Maryland odds

(via FanDuel)

Illinois vs Maryland predictions

(5:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

However, as I looked into the game more closely, I realized that the Terps would fit well with the Illini.

Maryland has won and covered four of the past five head-to-head meetings, including three outright wins as the underdog.

That included a matchup in Champaign earlier this season, where the Terps won by nine points.

There’s one main reason for that.

Both teams take all of the opposing offense off the 3-point line.

The Illini rank 6th nationally in 3-point percentage, while the Terps rank 13th.

They get there in different ways – Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense, while Maryland mostly spams press coverage – but it has the same effect.

So Illinois vs. Maryland usually devolves into a battle of inside, two-point shooting, and post-ups.

It’s all about the paint bucket.

Maryland has a significant advantage in this regard, especially defensively.

The Terps are destructive defensively. Julian Reese is one of the best post-up defenders in the country (.52 PPP allowed, 91st percentile) and leads one of the better post-up defenses in the country (.76 PPP allowed, 84th percentile).

Maryland allows just 28 paint points per game (84th percentile), blocks five shots per night (93rd percentile), and leads the Big Ten in two-point shooting percentage (46 percent). There is.

There’s a reason Maryland ranks No. 5 in the nation in defensive efficiency, and the main reason is on the interior wall.

Illinois will primarily rely heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask to generate offense through isolation and transition sets, with Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Grier taking action inside.

Unfortunately, Maryland has a solid transition defense (0.96 PPP Allowed, 77th percentile) and an even better island defense (0.62 PPP Allowed, 92nd percentile).

Jameel Young, Julian Reese, and Donta Scott are three of the Big Ten’s best isolation defenders.

Between those three and Reese, the Terps can match up with Illinois at any position.

Illinois will look to shore up its offense with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, but it will be tough against a Terps defense that allows just .95 (93rd percentile) in offensive rebounds/second-chance PPP.

While Maryland’s interior defense will be more than solid, the same cannot be said for Illinois.

The Illini allow 35 paint points per game (16th percentile), but that jumps to 38 paint points (5th percentile) in conference play.

The Illini don’t defend the rim particularly well (8% block rate, 12th in the Big Ten) and are only average against post setups (.86 PPP, 49th percentile).

The Terps focus much of their offense through Reese in the post, while Kevin Willard’s offense comes primarily from Jameel Young generating off the dribble.

And it has a huge effect against the Illini’s drop defense.

The drop coverage scheme emphasizes the ball handler inside and forces the ball handler towards the inside big man who is hanging towards the rim.

Therefore, guards who break through the dribble need to create a spot in the middle of the floor, and Young can do that.

In fact, considering Maryland is the worst ball-handling team in the Big Ten, the best way to beat Young and the Terps’ backcourt is to put pressure on them.

However, this decline is a negative report as Illinois ranks second from bottom in the conference in defensive turnover rate.

All in all, I’m happy with Young and Reese managing buckets against the Illini’s questionable passive interior defense.

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On the other hand, I don’t feel good about the Illini’s four big scorers creating individual offense against the Terps.

That’s exactly what happened in our last match.

Reese scored 9 of his 20 points on 12 post-up sets, and Young scored 28 points on 11 of 20 2-point shooting.

Overall, the Terps scored 52 points in the paint, made 26 of 48 shots (54%) from inside the arc, had 14 assists, and committed just seven turnovers.

Meanwhile, the Illini managed just 26 points in the paint and shot a dismal 15-of-42 (36%) from 2-point range.

They had a dismal performance on ball screens (four points in 14 sets) and a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (8-to-9).

Expect something similar to happen on Saturday and bet accordingly.

Illinois vs. Maryland Pick

Maryland +2.5