Immigration advocates are preparing for Trump 2.0, whose promise of mass deportations is sending waves of panic and anger across the movement.
Even before President-elect Trump's landslide victory on Tuesday, immigrant advocacy groups were facing an identity crisis after decades of relying on Hispanics as their primary voting base and with no political party fully embracing their priorities. was.
“I think part of the challenge is that the movement has been very insular. It's focused on illegal immigration,” said Marielena Hincapie, a scholar at Cornell University's Immigration Law and Policy Program. .
“When I led the National Immigration Law Center, I was the person who said, 'I'm a Latino, and this is not just a Latino issue.' [Latinos],' right? It's about the people of Asia and the Pacific Islands. This is a story about black immigrants. But when we talk about immigration, or those who are directly affected, and those who are directly affected by immigration, we also have to consider that they are not just illegal aliens. It concerns spouses of U.S. citizens. They are the children of the American people. Business owners rely on them. Homeowners are rebuilding their homes after Milton in Asheville, North Carolina or Florida. ”
Since the first Trump administration, the scope of immigration advocacy has expanded, particularly with the rise of Haitian-American civil rights groups and the close relationship between advocacy and business through organizations such as the American Business Immigration Coalition. It is.
In 2023, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce called on Congress to advance a series of bipartisan bills for border security and immigration reform.
“An outdated legal immigration system and its woefully inadequate supply of worker visas have severely hampered the ability of businesses to meet their workforce needs for years. Deficiencies are a significant contributing factor to the continued challenges at our southern border,” Neil Bradley, the chamber’s chief policy officer, said in a letter to Congress.
However, both the outgoing and divided Congress and the Democratic-controlled Congress of the first half of the Biden administration have consistently focused on immigration (a pattern that has continued for nearly 40 years) and the government's responsibility, although it is systemically stagnant. No progress was made on border security. The scope and cost have increased over the past 20 years.
This is a painful endgame for a movement whose primary goal is to modernize and humanize the immigration system and curb the growth of the detention and deportation industrial complex.
“If we look beyond the binaries presented to American voters this election cycle — felons versus democracy, tough versus chaos, ban versus welcome — they are real and necessary. and wrong choices that often overshadow widely supported policy solutions. The pressures of illegal immigration and the harm caused by the recycling of crime and incarceration will not go away on their own, nor can they be erased through mere bravado, but must be considered in ways that create lasting change. ” said Chairman Todd Schulte. FWD.us, an organization that bridges the gap between big technology companies and immigrant advocacy, said in a statement.
Trump's victory sent stocks of private prison operators soaring. Investors are betting that his promises of mass deportation and mass incarceration will come true, and millions of taxpayer dollars are being funneled into these companies.
As of noon Friday, GEO Group stock had risen nearly 75 percent in five days, and CoreCivic stock had risen nearly 68 percent.
But some remain skeptical that Trump can or even wants to build the infrastructure needed to carry out the deportations of millions of people.
“Is he going to deport 20 million people? I really don't think so. It's unrealistic,” said Rob Wilson, president of Emplico USA, a state-run human resources company.
Still, Wilson said businesses need to prepare for Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids by checking for proper work permits.
“The good thing is unemployment. It goes back to the relationship between the employer market and the employee market, and employers have a little more choice. A few years ago, people were still out of work because of COVID-19. Back then, it was the employees who were actually running the market. And now they've flipped. So as an employer, I think you have a little more flexibility,” Wilson said.
This runs counter to two central tenets in the immigrant advocacy world: the belief in President Trump's intimidation and the dependence of the U.S. economy on undocumented labor.
Hincapie said Democrats have historically missed opportunities to communicate the latter.
“By implementing just three bullet points and saying that message over and over again, you can move the conversation from just a border story to a human story that everyone in the United States relates to in some way. ” she said.
“If you eat in this country, it's because of immigrants. If you go to a restaurant. You go shopping. Who is taking care of us? Are they the immigrants who are rebuilding the cities after the climate disaster? So they're just not doing it, right? They're not what we are, President Trump. It doesn’t talk about who is affected by the policy.”
Trump's message on immigration has been consistent throughout his political career, but his promise to solve economic hardship is what resonated most with voters. NBC News exit polls found that 32% of voters in key states said the economy was their top issue, while only 11% said immigration.
“While it remains to be seen how Latinos actually voted in this election, our community is largely concerned about the economy and the rising prices of food, housing, and other necessities, including rising prices for food, housing, and other necessities. Same household finances as other Americans Concerns about inflation and making ends meet almost uniquely influenced the Hispanic vote in this election,” UnidosUS President Janet Murguia said after the election. said in a statement.
Of the 11% of voters who prioritized immigration, 90% voted Republican and only 9% voted Democratic, and Vice President Harris' immigration advocacy has made abortion a top issue for 34% of voters. and her positions on democracy protection. In a public opinion poll.
“In a year when the stakes have never been higher, young, black, brown, gay, and working-class communities are calling on Vice President Harris and the Democratic Party as a whole to support pro-immigration policies that resonate with most young people.” ” Michelle Min, political director of United We Dream Action, said in a statement.
“By refusing to implement bold, progressive policies, Democrats failed to send the message to voters needed to stop a dictator from taking back the White House. We call on the Harris Administration, Congress, and state and local officials across the country to do everything they can to provide critical protections for immigrants at this time. We will protect our communities at all costs. I’m ready to put my body on the line.”
For decades, advocates have fought an uphill battle to keep immigration a priority for Latino voters, many of whom have seen Congress pass significant legislation on the issue. There was no.
The dispersion of the Latino vote (gender, national origin, age, and geographic disparities tell the story of Hispanic voters in 2024) makes this a volatile district, but polls show A majority of Latinos say they support a path to citizenship.
“The inevitable question is: What could the Democratic Party do to halt the decline in voters who make up its base, like Latinos?” It has been said that they cannot assume that there will be absolute support in the election period. The Democrats knew their support was declining among Latino men, and yet they had no sense of crisis, even if a small percentage of them were Hispanic. They may have thought they could get votes,” wrote Maribel Hastings, a senior adviser at America’s Voice, in a widely distributed op-ed. Spanish media.
America's Voice is a progressive organization founded by longtime immigration advocate Frank Sharry in 2008 during comprehensive immigration reform negotiations that briefly brought political opponents to the same table. It is an immigration advocacy organization.
The lines of communication between immigration advocates and immigration restriction advocates have been severed since before Trump's first term, and there will be little incentive to mend the rift in a second Trump administration.
But immigration advocates have built an economic base, focused on legal and illegal immigration as a force in both the labor and consumer markets, and are pushing back against civil rights under the Trump administration. We see an opportunity to engage a wide range of concerned voters.
“We know that there is a broader political constituency that we are not tapping into, and that is what we need to work with. And frankly, we know that we support Trump. I think there are a lot of people who did, who voted for Trump, who voted for economic issues or other issues, or, you know, strong man attitudes like masculinity, whatever the reason. , we thought we need to bring them back. We need them to understand,” Hincapie said.
The frustration and anger prevalent in the immigrant advocacy world is not just directed at Mr. Trump, but at those voters as well.
“Despite all the circumstances, the American people gave him a second term,” Hastings wrote in a Spanish-language editorial.
“We expect severe turbulence ahead, so please stay safe.”
