Immigration surge could add to Social Security coffers, budget chief tells lawmakers

“We project that the immigration surge from 2021 to 2026 will generate roughly $1 trillion in additional revenue over 10 years,” Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Philip Swagel told lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday.

Members of the House Ways and Means Committee on Social Security convened to examine the current financial status and projections of the dwindling Social Security Trust Fund as the program nears its end. Potential savings Cut individual benefits by more than 21 percent by 2035.

As the House of Representatives moves forward with the spending process this month, lawmakers will once again be battling over the Social Security budget. While Democrats and Republicans continue to battle over two solutions to the program’s dwindling funding — raising taxes on the wealthy or cutting benefits — a third issue has emerged during the session: immigration.

Republicans, including former president and presidential candidate Donald Trump, have increasingly said in recent months that immigrants are straining social programs for the elderly, including Social Security and Medicare.

On a panel discussion Tuesday, top budget experts rejected those claims, arguing that immigration could have a positive effect on Social Security.

Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.) linked the hearing’s topic to immigration reform for the first time when she asked the witnesses whether the Social Security Trust Fund would be better off by providing more legal pathways to immigration, and all three agreed.

“That would make a big difference,” said Stephen Goss, chief actuary at the Social Security Administration (SSA).

Immigration to the United States could solve one of the biggest strains on the Social Security program: demographic stagnation. In his testimony, Goss cited declining birth rates in recent decades as one factor behind the growing Social Security shortfall. Falling birth rates mean fewer workers to ease the burden on the baby boomers currently collecting benefits.

Swagel restated CBO’s 2024 plan. Investigation result Under questioning from Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.), Goss projected that immigration could bring in $1 trillion in tax revenue over 10 years. Swagel acknowledged that the CBO’s projections need to be periodically reevaluated, but Goss remained adamant about the positive role immigration plays in funding Social Security.

“In some cases, income is reported,” he said, noting that employers may also file payroll taxes for undocumented employees. “They likely don’t get the benefit deduction, but they still owe payroll tax.”

Illegal immigrants cannot receive Social Security benefits, but they may be unknowingly contributing to the fund. In 2013, the Social Security Administration reportA committee led by Goss found that illegal immigrants paid about $13 billion in Social Security taxes that year alone.

The reality reflected in the numbers contradicts the Republican message. post Trump told Truth Social he linked illegal immigration to declining Social Security funding.

“Unlike the Democrats who are destroying Social Security and Medicare by allowing immigrants in,” he wrote, “under no circumstances will we allow these two priceless gems to even be touched under the Trump Administration.”

Rep. Ron Estes (R-Kansas) pressed Goss on whether the Social Security Administration considered “the impact of illegal immigration” in its annual reports.

“Of course it always has been,” Goss replied. “After all, with our birth rate being so low, any form of immigration is a positive.”

The promotion of immigration as a solution to Social Security’s problems is another blow to the Republican Party and the Trump campaign’s messaging on Social Security, which in late March walked back the former president’s comments about “cutting” Social Security.

As the House begins the spending process in the midst of election season, Social Security and immigration are likely to be top of mind for lawmakers, just as they were for voters in the run up to November.