Bitcoin Sees Institutional Inflows, Yet On-Chain Signals Weakness
In March 2026, the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a surge in monthly net inflows after a previous period of outflows. It seems interesting—initially, there were significant purchases at the month’s start, followed by outflows later on as institutional buyers continued to engage.
During this accumulation phase, MicroStrategy purchased around 18,000 BTC on March 9 and another 22,000 BTC on March 16. Notably, part of this acquisition was funded through equity. However, purchases had to pause between March 23 and March 29 due to some funding constraints.
As for Bitcoin itself, it recorded a net outflow of $194 million last week but saw a net inflow of $964 million since the start of the year. This recent outflow seems a bit concerning but is occurring amid larger inflows from institutional players this year.
On another note, the Basel SCO60 report assigns a 1,250% risk weight to uncollateralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Regulators in the U.S. haven’t indicated if they’ll follow SCO60 guidelines or how they’ll treat exposure to Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman, Michael Saylor, indicated that the company plans to continue its quarterly Bitcoin acquisitions and has no intentions of selling, which suggests that their accumulation efforts are far from over.
Looking into the on-chain data, the realized price for short-term holders has dipped to around $83,200. Analysis shows that broader realized prices point to potential support near or below $50,000 for Bitcoin.
Analyst Willy Wu has mentioned a realized price of around $54,200 and a CVDD of about $45,500. This indicates that based on historical bear market trends, Bitcoin’s support band might range between $46,000 and $54,000.
Currently, BTC is facing liquidations totalling about $375 million, split between roughly $241 million in long positions and $134 million in shorts. Interestingly, the largest liquidation recorded was a $9.8 million order on Bybit.
For long-term holders, profitability has remarkably dropped from 58% to just 3% in a span of about 140 days. Even with this decline, LTH’s net unrealized gains and losses hovered slightly above zero.
Near-term support levels for Bitcoin are suggested to be in the mid-$60,000 range. Still, if the downward trend continues, it might drop further toward $60,000. As for March’s monthly closing status, that remains somewhat ambiguous for now.
