In Shinzo’s shadow, Japan fears ‘if Trump’ 

If the tiger. That is a compact phrase that is currently spreading like wildfire in Japan. It is often said with a sense of foreboding, meaning “What if it were Trump?”

This haiku-like four-syllable phrase is a shortened version of the long sentence, “What would happen if Trump won the presidency again?” Like many foreign capitals, Tokyo is in a mild panic over President Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House.

Tokyo is concerned about a resurgence of infections. Tariffman It will lead to new control of tariffs on Japanese goods and new bullying for more spending. About defense. However, the person Japan fears most is former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. shot In the summer of 2022, Japan experiences a rare act of political violence and is no longer in a position to manage President Trump.

Thanks to Prime Minister Abe’s deft handling of Trump 1.0, Tokyo escaped those chaotic years without major damage. Prime Minister Abe has undoubtedly proven to be President Trump’s best administrator among world leaders.

However, Japan’s current modest prime minister is Fumio Kishidadoes not seem capable of replicating what Abe did. The same goes for other Japanese politicians.

It was not a foregone conclusion that Japan would do well when Trump became president. Donald Trump rose to fame as president in the 1980s. fierce critic Regarding Japanese trade practices.And even as a candidate, he frequently ventilated against Japan.

However, Prime Minister Abe knew how to deal with President Trump. As other world leaders contemplate Trump 2.0, they should reconsider Abe’s approach, which most leaders probably won’t be able to emulate.

What was Abe’s secret?

He understood, perhaps better than any other leader, that in the case of President Trump, flattery can get you anywhere.At their first meeting (and Abe First foreign instructor (to meet Trump after the election), he gave Trump the following set: gold golf club.they became famous golf buddy after that.

Trump said that in addition to the Gold Club, Prime Minister Abe nominated him to the Gold Club. Nobel Peace Prize. And Mr. Trump first world leader This was planned by Prime Minister Abe in order to have an audience with Japan’s new emperor in 2019. In dozens of face-to-face meetings and telephone conversations, Abe regularly praised him. controversial president.

Even to casual observers, President Trump’s ego You can easily fill the Grand Canyon. Prime Minister Abe readily agreed. In other words, Prime Minister Abe was willing to sacrifice his own ego. very big. This is something world leaders rarely do proactively.

Prime Minister Abe could also focus on his own strategic goals.Prime Minister Abe and former President Barack Obama naïve Regarding relations with China.Japan was a victim of China’s tyrannical economic oppression and understood it. Already in 2010 China is the biggest strategic threat.

At the time, the United States did not share that view. Prime Minister Abe and many people in the Japanese government Liked President Trump’s firm approach to ChinaEven if his style is out of order. Prime Minister Abe wanted to harness that enthusiasm for Japan’s benefit.

Prime Minister Abe naturally respected the office of the U.S. president and its power. Even if he didn’t care about President Trump’s personal actions, he could put his reservations aside for more important goals. His ability brought great results to Japan.

Prime Minister Abe persuaded President Trump to accept his idea Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. What is that strategy? now the cornerstone Some would argue that this is a key point in the US approach to the region, and that the strategic success alone is worth appeasing to Prime Minister Abe.

Second, Prime Minister Abe understood what the people wanted. It is the strong relationship with the United States, and the United States looms largest in the hearts of Japanese people.

Without the United States, Japan would be powerless to counter threats from wrongdoers such as China, North Korea, and Russia.In terms of direct investment, Japan invests more in the US more than any other country. In other words, Japan is an indispensable ally.

Prime Minister Abe’s cozying up to President Trump does not mean that he has not withstood any criticism.Some called him Mr. Trump. lap dog. But overall, the Japanese public approved of Prime Minister Abe’s deft handling of Trump.

Finally, Prime Minister Abe was an outspoken nationalist and conservative. As such, he was ideologically closer to Trump than Obama. Sharing similar political philosophies certainly helped bring the two together.

Japan’s leaders are already scrambling to hedge against the risk of Trump 2.0. In January, former Prime Minister Taro Aso, vice president of the ruling party, visited the United States. Part of the reason for his visit was to secure an audience with President Trump. Abe doesn’t have enough juice, he failed in an attempt.

So as the U.S. races toward voting day in November, “What if it’s a tiger” will remain a top priority for Japan. It also comes with a related unanswered question: “Who would be without Abe?”

David Bowling works as director of Japan and Asia trade at political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group.