The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. The weapon that American policymakers can use to rebalance is trade, not bombs.
The U.S. government needs a plan to stabilize Syria, create conditions for future U.S. investments, and prevent Russia from regaining a foothold. If policymakers can work wisely and strategically with U.S. businesses and other partners, the United States can blunt Russian influence in Syria and President Vladimir Putin's plans to project power in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. .
It is imperative that the United States act now. Although Russia's position in Syria has weakened, it is likely to double down in the future to strengthen its position in the country. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and signatory Russia has diplomatic influence in negotiations regarding the United Nations resolution that sets out the outline of the post-Assad regime. Russia has also not completely removed its military bases in Syria. Syria's current de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharah, noticed “Deep strategic” interests between Russia and Syria.
Russia is likely to seek to leverage business ties. After Russia's military intervention in Syria in late 2015 to rescue Assad, Russian companies (along with the Wagner militia (now renamed AfricaCorp)) gained access to Syrian resources such as energy, phosphates, and telecommunications. did. Russia will lose billions of Along with lending to the Assad regime, there are also investments in Syria.
America's plan to counter Russia must begin with sanctions. Washington has surrounded the Assad regime in a tight network of sanctions. It will take years to undo all of this, but discussions are currently underway to issue exemptions and permits to encourage economic development and foreign investment in Syria. On January 6th, the Ministry of Finance issued Additional sanctions relief. If early waivers are issued on humanitarian grounds, U.S. authorities must ensure that Russia cannot exploit loopholes in the sanctions regime, including the use of shell companies or other third parties that are difficult to trace.
The United States must also move proactively beyond sanctions. The U.S. government can do this by empowering Ukrainians and other partners to help rebuild Syria. Indeed, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy already expressed Enthusiasm to do so. The United States could help the Ukrainians and other partners identify what support they need to operate in a way that empowers them in Syria and keeps Russia out, while respecting the existing sanctions regime. .
Until recently, Russia was the largest supplier of wheat to Syria, but much of that grain was stolen by Russia from Ukraine. With the fall of the Assad regime, supplies from Russia were halted. The United States should work with American companies to ensure that Ukrainian wheat reaches Syria. It then needs to expand its options to other commercial interests, such as telecommunications, to keep Russia out.
Finally, the United States could build better public messaging campaigns that highlight what the United States and its partners are doing to support Syria, possibly with support from the private sector. . In the past, the United States often did not label humanitarian aid for fear of President Assad's retaliation. America didn't care about getting credit. The priority was to help the Syrian people. Now is also the time to earn trust.
No one should have any illusions. It will be very difficult to help Syria. However, the United States top It has been providing humanitarian aid to Syria for many years, disbursing more than $17 billion in humanitarian aid since 2011. Even if the U.S. is successful in getting aid to Syria under Assad, Russia (and Iran) are losing control with Assad gone. Russian officials frequently travel abroad with business delegation. Moscow understands the importance of trade relations in politics. The United States can win Putin's own game.
America's trust is at stake. Beyond that, failure to assist Syria would result in greater U.S. losses in Ukraine. American policymakers have long said Russia must not be allowed to profit from Assad's war crimes. For years, Russian officials wept crocodile tears over Syria's humanitarian suffering while Putin supported Assad's bombing of civilians in his country. Moscow could repeat its crimes on an even larger scale in Ukraine. This situation will continue unless the cost to Russia becomes high enough.
The Russians are now betting that the US government will abandon the Middle East. If the Russian government is proven right, the United States will lose face around the world. If Russia strengthens its commercial presence in Syria, it will use its economic profits to finance the war in Ukraine, which will require correspondingly more aid to Ukraine, which will cost Western countries more money. It is likely to increase. The Russian government also intends to use its presence in Syria to build influence across the region.
President Putin does not want peace in the world, he wants chaos. Russia has already succeeded in undermining global trade and destabilizing its economy and regime in the interest of its own power. President Putin invaded Ukraine, starting the largest armed conflict on European soil since World War II. It is no longer possible to pretend that the war in Ukraine is an isolated conflict.
Yes, it is the Syrian people who must build their own future. But with the help of the world's dominant economic superpowers, its future stability will be more secure. The United States has a unique opportunity to regain influence across the Middle East by resisting Russia's attempts to position itself at the center of a new world order. Allowing Russian domination in Syria will only ensure further chaos and war.
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and “Putin's Syria War: Russia's Foreign Policy and the Cost of America's Absence”
