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It seems pretty clear to me that Vice President Kamala Harris won what was likely her only debate with former President Donald Trump on Tuesday night. The VP had help, too: She was aided and abetted by two ABC News hosts who seemed to feel the need to fact-check nearly everything the former president said.
The former president was visibly frustrated and grew more hardline and divisive as the nearly two-hour debate continued, and the vice president seemed to gain new confidence as he watched Trump grow increasingly wary of relentless questioning from him and from moderators David Muir and Lindsey Davis.
While I predict Harris will clearly win the debate, it is far from clear that the debate, which took place just 56 days before the election, will have a fundamental impact on the outcome on November 5th.
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I say this because Trump spoke directly to his supporters on Tuesday night, who understood better than anyone just how much bias ABC News had introduced into the process. Sure, Harris had better answers on abortion, health care, climate change and future leadership — that much is clear. But it's also clear that what Trump said in his closing statement still stands.
Voters remain angry about the direction the country is heading, the performance of President Biden and Vice President Harris and which candidate they trust more on two or three major issues facing the country: the economy, immigration and law and order.
My guess is that Harris' performance in this matchup, where Democrats cheered as soon as Trump began to get tough and hostile within the first 45 minutes of the debate, will help her win somewhat.
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But rarely has the election been as turned on its head as it was after the June 27 debate between President Trump and President Biden. And while President Trump on Tuesday night seemed like a different person than he was in June, his points were the same — and many voters, in fact a majority of voters, agree with his core assessment of the state of the U.S.
I also believe this will likely be the last debate the candidates will participate in. For VP Harris, the math is simple: she will claim victory, her supporters will be emboldened, her coffers will continue to flow, and she will have absolutely no reason to ever negotiate again in any way with the former president.
The Harris camp may insist that they want a second debate, but it would almost certainly be under terms the former president would never agree to. It's hard to imagine Trump agreeing to return to ABC, much less NBC or CBS, and the chances of Harris appearing on Fox News are slim at best.
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For the former president, the calculus is quite different, but it reaches the same conclusion. His worst fears were realized on Tuesday night. The debate was anything but fair. And since Fox News doesn't host debates, there's little reason to believe he'll get fair treatment from the other networks.
He also knows that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, he won the first election and lost the second election, but was able to win support from voters outside of a head-to-head contest with his opponent. Trump has a unique and persuasive appeal during his campaign. We have seen evidence of this time and time again.
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Trump and his advisers will likely conclude that they can win over voters by avoiding a direct confrontation with Harris. They will do so by sending her out on the campaign trail, to interviews and to rallies. That will be far more effective than taking the risks involved in a night like the one we saw on Tuesday.
But it is notable that Harris reassured her supporters and many swing voters that she is the real deal. She is ready and able to govern. But at the same time, doubts about her suitability to be the next president of the United States remain strong and palpable. Indeed, a major weakness of Trump's performance on Tuesday night was his failure to highlight the economic issues and the contrast between his economic leadership and that of Joe Biden in a clear and understandable way to voters.
President Trump's emphasis on the southern border seemed to me to be over the top, even if his arguments resonated widely.
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In other words, I am almost certain that many on the left will declare the election over based on Harris' strong showing, which would almost certainly be an exaggeration or hyperbole.
Trump will undoubtedly face a political setback this week in his showdown with the vice president and the two ABC hosts, but judging by past examples, counting him out would be a big mistake.
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