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In Ukraine, Trump and Kellogg must avoid the road to Yalta

It has become more and more clarified that Vice Admiral Keith Kerogg, who has retired, has no overall plan to end the war in Ukraine. At least President Trump is willing to support him.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was to Megin Kelly last Friday The Trump administration believes The war was “stalemate” and “it does not end with the goal of the Maximum Russian or Ukrainian.”

Russia's President Vladimir Putin does not agree. He remains a dead set for Ukraine's complete destruction and keeps claiming that Absolute submission。 His advisor, Nikolai Pattle ChefGoing further: “Ukraine will not stop what Ukraine exists at all next year.”

Kremlin believes that there is time on that side, especially when Trump has Kerogg's mission By finding a solution negotiated within 100 days.

A quick negotiated solution means ending the war with Putin conditions. Moscow is still demanding Ukraine's complete surrender, such as concessions of territory, neutral Ukraine, and unilateral disarmament.

Putin also claimsUkraine needs to “abandon the pursuit of NATO membership” and will have to accept “a wide range of restrictions on the type of weapon system that is allowed to be owned.”

Each of these is a non -starter in Ukraine.

In essence, Putin requires Kerogg to embark on modern wise roads. Yalta Conference。 Near the end of World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, in exchange for Stalin, who agree to fight Japan, effectively recognizes Yalta East Europe in Joseph Stalin. I did it. result? 43 years Iron curtain In Europe.

Kerogg needs to tell him that he is on the road anywhere with Putin with his inner general George Patton.

Kremlin is betting that Trump is strategically distracted in the Indian Pacific, as if Roosevelt was at the end of World War II I have everything I want. Putin does not keep it secret.

Russia repeatedly refused Kerogg's proposal Frozen the war。 Moscow does not accept the existence of European peacekeeping army In Ukraine. And despite the fact that Ukraine's constitution is not so, Putin considers Zelenceki as Zelenski. Illegal leaderThe term of his president has expired last year. As a result, he does not negotiate directly with him.

Therefore, it is not wise for kellogg Promotes Ukraine Elections will be held after the ceasefire. Moscow has a low performance on the battlefield, but has excellent election interference. Recent elections Moldoba,, Georgia and Romania It is very discarded and foreseeing what will come.

On the other hand, Putin continues to attack Ukraine.

On the weekend, Russia fired a ballistic missileOdesa's historic city centerUNESCO is registered as a World Heritage Site specified. Several historical buildings were damaged and seven were injured.Norwegian diplomatWhen I visited the city, the strike fleed narrowly. March 2024, Prime Minister GreekKyriakos mitsotakisWe also avoided missile strikes in Odesa within 500 meters from the fleet.

Kerogg is struggling to set meaningful negotiations so far. Putin is clearly waiting for a face -to -face meeting with Trump, who wants to be a second meeting like Yalta.

Kerogg is trapped in the “Let's Make Asserded Operaly” like Mont Hall, regardless of whether it is rich. Kremlin. This peace agreement is not a victim but a short -term profit in the United States. This is Ukraine.

Currently, Kellogg has no negotiation leverage. There are signs that can change. On Monday, Trump announced that he wanted Ukraine repaying the United States There are rare earth minerals that are evaluated as “nearly $ 300 billion”. It would be wise for Kerogg to remind Trump that some of the Russian occupied Donba is rich in natural resources.

surely, Donbus “There are some of the world's largest titanium ore and iron ore, unauthorized lithium fields, large -scale sediments of coal.

Therefore, Ukraine is more than you can pay for the future. Kerogg is when Putin reminds you of the reality.

But Putin only receives the message as long as his nose is bloody on the battlefield. He survives Biden's “just enough” war in Ukraine and now believes that he can hold Trump long.

Kerogg can deny Putin by giving power to the Ukrainian army to take the fight against Russians.

Russia has been weakened militaryly. Putin has been suffering from estimating after fighting for nearly three years 841,660 victims48,240 In January alone, tens of thousands of tanks, armored combat vehicles, gun systems, multiple rocket launch systems, aircraft, helicopters, warships, and vehicles were combined.

The only way to create a decisive negotiations leverage and stop killing in Ukraine is to defeat Russia and drive it out of the country. It includes all devices on diplomacy, information, military, economy, and Dime on national power.

A new sanctions that adjust the cost of oil by adjusting OPEC to reduce the cost of oil and target only the shadow fleet will not bring Putin to the negotiating table. Hammer -Punch to the face -must come from the military tools of state power. Ukraine is an effectively targeting oil refining place, but it must be pressed from the forefront unit in a close battle, which requires a block.

This requires entering Ukraine before targeting Russia, North Korea, Chechen, equipment, weapons, ammunition, fuel, and Russia. It means to target them in their assembly areas, seaports, airports, railways, ammunition storage areas, and fuel depot. Only when Putin feels threatened by his army's loss, he will come to the negotiating table -sanctions will not do so.

Putin negotiates with Kerogg, but only when he realizes that he is really losing on the Ukrainian battlefield.

After that, it is highly likely that Putin and Trump meet Yalta 2.0 every time. And the new iron curtain falls.

Colonel (RET.) Jonathan Sweet He served as a military Intelligense for 30 years. Mark toss I write about national security and foreign policy.

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