US-India Relations Face Serious Challenges Amid Changing Dynamics
For over two decades, the partnership between Washington and New Delhi has been regarded as a significant success in post-Cold War diplomacy. However, the current landscape presents what might be the toughest test for this relationship in years, with India increasingly exploring alternative options.
Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at Carnegie’s International Peace Fund, remarked, “We find ourselves in a situation with US-India relations where the established frameworks that functioned for the past 25 years are now being questioned.” He expressed a sense of lost trust.
India has visibly shifted its focus eastward, especially since President Trump imposed tariffs on Indian imports. In recent weeks, Indian national security advisers have visited Moscow, the foreign minister has made a trip there, and discussions have concluded with China. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is gearing up for his first visit to China in over seven years, and he is also expected to meet President Vladimir Putin in Moscow by year-end.
The U.S. tariffs designed to penalize India appear counterproductive, as India’s ongoing purchase of Russian oil seems to draw New Delhi closer to its American rival.
Tariff Tensions
This year, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian imports due to India’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil. By August, the tariff had doubled to 50%.
Public sentiment in India is irate, with many viewing this as an interference with national sovereignty. Feigenbaum noted that people are very vocal about perceiving this as a violation of India’s right to make independent foreign policy choices.
Despite some initial reluctance, Indian refiners have restarted imports of Russian oil, which now constitutes 35% of India’s imports, up from a minimal 0.2% before the Ukrainian conflict. Russia has seized this opportunity, with officials stating they will keep shipping various fuels, including crude oil and LNG.
Moscow and Beijing’s Influence
Russia is leveraging this situation to promote a broader partnership with China and India. Michael Kugelman, a South Asian analyst, pointed out that India has recently made attempts to ease tensions with China, motivated mostly by economic factors. He suggested that Trump’s policies might be accelerating this shift.
Some diplomatic gestures from India appear more theatrical, aimed at signaling dissatisfaction to Washington. Yet, other actions indicate a firmer commitment to strengthening ties with Russia. Feigenbaum noted, “India is likely to reinforce certain economic and defense collaborations with Russia, and those elements seem enduring.”
Kugelman further elaborated that even before the conflict in Ukraine, India was gradually reducing its reliance on Russian military imports in favor of systems from the U.S., France, and Israel. Still, the war prompted India to increase energy purchases from Russia, reflecting a lack of trust in the U.S. while finding Russia more reliable.
Internal Dynamics and Political Strategy
Modi has turned this geopolitical standoff into a narrative of protecting India’s sovereignty. Kugelman commented that India’s earlier concessions to the Trump administration might lead the government to be cautious about further compliance, which also explains the absence of new trade agreements.
While Modi hasn’t explicitly criticized Trump, his focus on supporting farmers and small businesses resonates in India’s domestic political discourse.
Frustration from Washington
The Trump administration has yet to show any signs of backing down. Former White House advisor Peter Navarro criticized India’s oil purchases as “opportunistic” and damaging. He warned that India should act more like a strategic partner if it wants favorable access to U.S. markets.
Historical Context of Relations
Looking back, the stark contrast between today’s U.S.-India relations and those of 20 years ago is noteworthy. The landmark nuclear deal in 2008 allowed India to access U.S. nuclear technology despite not being part of the non-proliferation treaty. Feigenbaum recalled the risk-taking involved by U.S. leaders at that time.
Both countries navigated their differences while maintaining a collaborative spirit, despite having opposing views on issues related to Iran, Burma, and Pakistan.
Future of the Quad Alliance
Historically, the U.S. viewed India as a democratic counterbalance to China’s authoritarian regime. This perspective has been central to strategies under multiple administrations. However, doubts linger regarding whether this ideological bond can withstand current tensions.
Kugelman emphasizes that the shared goal of countering China has kept the U.S.-India relationship intact over the years. Yet, emerging trade tensions are beginning to affect broader partnerships.
India continues to view China as a long-standing competitor, compounded by border disputes and alliances with Pakistan. Kugelman asserted that these tensions make it hard for India to shift its stance toward China.
For now, talks on defense cooperation remain on the agenda, but with trust diminished, Kugelman cautioned that this could hinder future collaboration significantly.
A Shift in Messaging
Feigenbaum noted that India’s recent maneuvering represents a notable change in its diplomatic approach. Earlier, India sought to convey to China that it had alternative options, but now, it seems more inclined to partner with China to send a message to Washington.
Ultimately, the goal is clear: India aims to pursue its interests on its own terms, signaling that it will not easily align itself with any single major power.
