For decades, Taiwan has been operating under the assumption that the US would intervene if China invaded it. But that confidence is now declining.
Under President Trump, Washington’s commitment to Taiwan has become increasingly unpredictable. Questions that were previously unthinkable are now openly debated in Taipei. Is Taiwan still essential to the US strategy or is it becoming a consumable?
Taiwan’s unrest deepened when Trump froze military aid to Ukraine. Many actions in Taiwan were interpreted as warning signals. If the US can take away Ukraine, what guarantees does Taiwan have? As one of our Taiwanese friends said, “Unlike Ukraine, which still has Europe, we only have the US. Even if Washington shakes, we are alone.”
An overt abandonment is unlikely, but such a move would burn China and contradict Trump’s “America-first” rhetoric – the real fear of Taipei is that Washington was unable to act decisively at a critical moment. Trump’s unpredictability effectively replaced strategic ambiguity with strategic uncertainty. This is a much more dangerous proposition.
His transactional approach – questioning Taiwan’s defense spending while prioritizing the “America First” agenda – has helped us to support what we feel conditional rather than guaranteed. Unlike Russia, which offers a path to negotiation, China sees Taiwan as unnegotiable, complicating potential resolutions.
If Beijing recognizes the weakness of Washington’s stance, it could escalate coercive measures through economic pressure, cyber attacks, or military provocation. Under Trump, these interests are higher than ever, putting Taiwan’s future in a precarious position.
Taiwan faces a harsh new reality. US support is no longer given. While bipartisan consensus has traditionally guaranteed Taiwan’s strategic importance, Trump’s approach erodes this foundation. Taiwan is at risk of becoming a steady partner and becoming a negotiation tip in the US-China competition. What’s even worse is standing alone against China.
Once a major strategic asset, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry no longer guarantees permanent security. The US is pushing for Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers (TSMCs) Increases production in the USreducing dependence on Taiwan-based manufacturing. As Taiwan’s economic leverage decreases, the question looms: does Washington still consider it essential? Many in Taiwan are already worried. “If you get what Trump’s America wants, or if you remove the chip from the equation, is there still a guarantee there?” asked one Taiwanese entrepreneur.
Beyond economic concerns, Taiwan faces an internal sector that undermines its security stance. Beijing continues to refuse dialogue, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has argued for the 1992 consensus. This is an ultimatum that is firmly opposed by Taiwan’s ruling democratic progressive party. Meanwhile, the opposition Kuo Mintan Party has adopted a more reconciliatory stance against Beijing, often hampering important defence funds and security measures. Without a legislative majority, Taiwan is struggling to strengthen its defenses. These internal rifts could prove Taiwan’s greatest vulnerability as China strengthens its efforts to exploit these sectors.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s pressure campaign continues to escalate. Military exercises near Taiwan are increasing, and cyberattacks on critical infrastructures have become commonplace, Diplomatic Isolation The effort is intensifying.
China’s “unification” rhetoric is growing more aggressively, further increasing the risks facing Taiwan. The threat is no longer military aggression, and the slow strangulation of Taiwan’s autonomy through economic coercion and political wars is a direct challenge to Taiwan’s self-determination.
Due to the uncertainty of Washington’s commitment, Taiwan must readjust its security strategy in three dimensions.
First, we need to prioritize asymmetric defenses and shift our focus from traditional deterrence to strategies that make potential Chinese invasions prohibitively expensive. This includes strengthening capabilities such as anti-ship missiles, drones, cyber warfare, and guerrilla tactics. Increased defense spending is essential, but more importantly, ensuring that resources are efficiently allocated to combat China’s evolving threats. Ukrainian resistance demonstrates the effectiveness of smaller mobile defense units and distributed command structures. Taiwan is a lesson to be adopted to make it a more difficult target.
Second, local partnerships need to be strengthened. US support remains important, but Taiwan cannot afford to resort solely to Washington. Intelligence sharing, informal military cooperation, and strengthening economic partnerships with regional authority such as Japan, Australia and India will significantly enhance Taiwan’s security. Japan has shown growing concerns about Taiwan’s future, Australia has strengthened its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, and India is expanding both its economic and technical ties with Taiwan. These informal yet robust alliances make it even more difficult for China to quarantine Taiwan while increasing the costs of invasion.
Third, Taiwan needs to redefine international messaging and move beyond comparisons with Ukraine. Trump’s worldview no longer holds the expectation that democracy will naturally protect each other. Taiwan must position itself as a strategic necessity, not just a moral cause. That security is not only about defending democracy, but also about maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific. This is a discussion that resonates more with Washington’s evolving calculus. Enhanced bipartisan support, engaging with Washington’s influential figures, and deepening outreach to non-traditional partners is important to ensure Taiwan’s position at the global stage.
Taiwan must also fight China’s information war. Beijing skillfully frames Taiwan as a domestic China issue, not a regional security concern. Taiwan needs a positive strategy to ensure that its narrative is not shaped solely by Beijing. This requires fostering relationships between China and developing countries to avoid excessive reliance on Western support. Shaping a unique story is vital to strengthening Taiwan’s region internationally.
Taiwan’s survival depends not only on its continued support of the US, but also on its ability to prove it is essential to a changing global landscape. It is an era where we assume that unwavering support for America is over. Taiwan needs to urgently strengthen its defenses, deepen its regional partnerships, reconstruct its strategic message to ensure its future is safe.
Taiwan cannot control Xi Jinping’s involvement or rejecting the uncertainty surrounding Trump-era policies, but it must be held responsible for a future that is agile, foresight and resolved. Self-determination begins at home – bold and decisive action, not endless arguments.
While Washington’s attitude remains important, Taiwan’s fate is determined by its ability to act in the end. A time of careful optimism has passed. Taiwan must take bold steps to ensure its future.
Sana Hashmi is a Fellow of the Taiwan Asia Exchange Foundation. The views of the author are not necessarily those or the views of other organizations.
