Judging from the results of the annual surveyShangri-La DialogueIn a US strategy held in Singapore over the weekend,Prevent ChinaAttempts to gain hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region are progressing.
With the US’s support now assured, Philippine President Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos (keynote speaker) said,“Filipinos will not give in”pressure from China.New InitiativesThe agreement was announced to deepen trilateral defense cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea to prevent inadvertent escalation in the Indo-Pacific.US-China military dialogue resumesAfter a two-year hiatus, he returned to the top level.
But there is little room for complacency. U.S. Indo-Pacific policy remains too full of contradictions that, if left unresolved, could over time push friends toward neutrality and current and potential partners toward the worse. This risk is most pronounced with respect to Indonesia.
To understand the importance of a country that is little understood or studied in the West, Prabowo SubiantoHe is Indonesia’s current Minister of Defense and won the country’s presidential election. Over 96 million votes.
This election result alone should be a reason for the world’s second and third largest democracies to gravitate closer together, especially at a time when China is trying to convince countries in the global South that Western-style democracy is incompatible with the West’s path of economic development.
Yet simply holding elections does not make a country an ally of the United States. But Indonesia is by no means neutral when it comes to the international rules-based order. When current President Joko Widodo met with Joe Biden in November 2023,The joint statement called on Russia to completely withdraw from Ukrainian territory..
butPrabowo made the remarks in a speech at Shangri-La.Indonesia’s stance on the Gaza conflict is premised on adherence to the same international order. He warned of growing disillusionment among many Southern countries and hinted at an important, but often overlooked, truth: Indonesia’s principled foreign policy serves U.S. interests in strengthening a rules-based order in Asia.
To make Indonesia a strong partner, we need to make more concessions on what Indonesians value. Both Democrats and Republicans need to make this a priority. The Muslim-majority country of about 300 million peopleIt is predicted to become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2050.In the struggle for geopolitical influence in Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the ultimate swing state.
To work better together, the United States should start with trade. Unfortunately, the Biden Administration’s approach in this policy area risks alienating Indonesia and pushing it into closer ties with America’s main competitors. AndPresident Biden’s Inflation Control Act (IRA) is the biggest obstacle.
The IRA gives tax credits to U.S. manufacturers if critical minerals are sourced from the U.S. or countries that have free trade agreements (FTAs) with the U.S. But such heavy subsidies have led to countries such as Indonesia being shut out of the IRA’s supply chains.As a workaround, Indonesia proposed a limited FTA covering only critical minerals.However, while the bill has not been rejected outright, it has stalled amid slow response from the US government.
This is a case of shooting itself in the foot twice: Not only would it encourage G20 nations to deepen economic ties with other nations hungry for its critical mineral output, it would also cut the U.S. out of a key supply chain needed to create a homegrown electric vehicle (EV) industry, which requires nickel, and Indonesia has the world’s largest reserves.By 2030, it will account for 65% of global supplyAnd they are looking for partners to move up the value chain. The U.S. should seize this opportunity, so they can source processed raw materials from Indonesia and U.S. consumers can buy U.S.-made EVs. It’s a “win-win,” as China calls it.
Second, the United States must double down on its defense relationship with Indonesia. China has systematically asserted its unilateral claims, with no basis in international law, regarding its territorial disputes with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. It is only a matter of time. Before setting its sights on Indonesia’s Natuna Islands In the South China Sea.
Given Indonesia’s pivotal position in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States should step up investments in bilateral cooperation programs.Maritime Security CooperationThis will strengthen the archipelago nation’s maritime security capabilities to protect every inch of its territory and all aspects of its maritime economic rights recognized under international law. From the perspective of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, a more capable Indonesia will provide a stronger defense for the Malacca chokepoint and an air shield over Australia. There is no time to waste in fully implementing this plan.Defense Cooperation AgreementPrabowo signed the agreement with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in November 2023.
Indonesia is a good example of how U.S. policy is at odds with U.S. priorities in the Indo-Pacific. As the world order and economy fragment, maintaining and advancing important alliances requires all branches of government to work in the same direction. The U.S. can start by embracing the world’s second-largest democracy economically.
Philip Shetler JonesHolds a Ph.D.Senior Research Fellow In international securityRoyal United Services Institute He is the founder of RUSI, the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defense and security think tank, and currently studies security in the Indo-Pacific region.
