Experts from the Post-and-action Network were analyzing the 151st Kentucky Derby held at Churchill Downs on Saturday, with a post time set for 6:57 PM.
Vic Cangialosi
New York Post Racing Handicapping Expert
1. Sandman: Starts off slow but finishes strong.
They missed out on the Rebels but didn’t let that hold them back at the Arkansas Derby.
Sandman got distanced from the leader but surged impressively during the stretches.
He’s often caught in tricky situations during crowded races, like the crowded 19-horse Derby. If this Tapit-sired gray can keep out of trouble and stay near the front, he’s able to power through the pack.
2. Baeza: You really need to be in the race to have a shot.
Just two days prior to the race, when Rodriguez was scratched, Baeza took the spot. But don’t expect a repeat of Rich Strike.
This 80-1 long shot surprised everyone when he was drawn during the morning of the race.
Baeza impressed with his performance in the Santa Anita Derby, even though he fell short against the fast-closing Journalism.
He’s got a brief history but a solid opportunity, and Flavian Prat is a top-notch rider.
3. Journalism: It’s a horse that wins by refusing to back down.
He’s won four consecutive races and seems to improve every time he runs.
After some early hurdles, he managed to catch up with Baeza at Santa Anita.
With excellent form and a high rating (102), he may not be the top pick, but he’s certainly one to watch.
Michael Lebov
New York Post Betting Writer
1. Journalism: While he may not offer the best betting value, he stands out as the most sensible choice for the win.
The only downside to this horse seems to be the tough nature of the Derby, which suggests he’s the right favorite.
2. Luxor Cafe: This impressive horse from Japan has become quite a tradition. We’re looking forward to seeing Luxor Cafe this year.
His performance in the Fukuryu Stakes was incredibly smooth.
It’s shaping up to be a notable year for Japanese contenders.
3. A Lump of Gold: Perhaps more of a horse for exotic bets than an outright victory, his late-race prowess could allow him to capitalize on fatigued opponents.
If he runs a good race, he could take advantage of others’ exhaustion.
Mike Conti
Action Network Racing Handicapping Expert
1. Luxor Cafe: This horse is making waves after winning his last four races in Japan.
His lineage includes an American Pharaoh, the 2015 winner of this race. He has a strong, gradual kick that can be crucial in fast races.
2. Journalism: The morning line favorite shows a solid Bayer Speed Figure (102).
He might be the most talented in the field, but he faces a tough challenge with 18 other horses in the Derby.
He’s built for endurance and has a powerful finish; if he gets the right trip, it could be a game-changer.
3. The Final Gambit: Although he hasn’t run on dirt, he recently won the Jeff Ruby Stakes.
In the past 22 years, several Jeff Ruby winners have gone on to perform well in this race.
He made a late charge in his last race, so expect him to make a strong push if the pace slows down.
