Bitcoin Shows Signs of Recovery
New insights indicate that over-leveraging took place in the last quarter of the year, with price metrics and profitability data hinting at a more robust Bitcoin framework.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight range just under $79,000, benefiting from favorable macroeconomic conditions. Other cryptocurrencies have followed a similar path, but experts express optimism regarding BTC’s prospects.
A collaborative analysis from Coinbase and Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin is positioned better than many altcoins, which are still facing challenges from last October’s market downturn.
Bitcoin’s Healthier Outlook for 2026
According to Coinbase and Glassnode, the cryptocurrency market is expected to be in a better condition as it heads into 2026, largely due to the significant reduction of excessive leverage in the fourth quarter. This perspective is backed by several on-chain technical indicators. One such indicator, the net unrealized gains and losses (NUPL), showed a shift in investor sentiment from a state of ‘belief’ to ‘worry’ after the October selloff, a trend that persisted throughout the quarter.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized price has been on the rise, which signals that the overall market cost base is increasing. The current spot price of Bitcoin remains above this realized price, suggesting that the average holder is still profitable rather than experiencing losses.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at about 1.5, indicating that Bitcoin is trading at a roughly 50% premium over its on-chain cost basis.
On-Chain Indicators
In the fourth quarter of 2025, a notable decrease in the share of BTC supply in profit was observed. This suggests that price levels between $80,000 and $85,000 could have acted as a zone for accumulation according to certain models. Additionally, the report highlighted shifts in both dormant and active supply.
Supply that has been transacted within the last three months increased by 37% in the fourth quarter, whereas the percentage of supply that hasn’t moved in over a year declined by 2%. This could point to the market entering a rapid distribution phase during that time.
Additional Insights
The Puel multiple also fell to 0.9 in the fourth quarter, indicating that miners earned about 10% less than the average of the previous year.
Moreover, changes in the positions of long-term holders and exchange balances revealed indications of profit-taking from July to September, although this behavior wasn’t as clearly evident in the fourth quarter of 2025.
