Iran’s Regime Tightens Control After Conflict

In the aftermath of a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, the Iranian government seems to be ramping up isolation and repression to preserve its authority.

This insight comes from various sources, who have noted the regime’s increasing focus on creating a “North Korean-style model of quarantine and control,” influenced by the significant losses faced by Israel’s air force and its nuclear program.

Kasra Arabi, who directs research on nuclear affairs related to Iran at the IRGC, emphasized that a new level of domestic isolation is emerging, which could have serious implications for Iranian citizens. “The regime has historically been totalitarian,” he noted, “but what we’re seeing now is a level of oppression that is unprecedented.”

An unnamed source from within Iran described the situation as “horrifying” in terms of its oppressive measures.

Arabi maintains consistent communication with contacts in Iran and reported that authorities randomly stop citizens, confiscating and searching their phones. He cautioned, “If you have anything perceived as pro-Israel or if you’re mocking the administration, you risk disappearing. Many people are opting to leave their phones at home or deleting sensitive content before stepping outside.”

This trend of isolating the Iranian populace was notably exacerbated during the recent conflict. Reports indicated that Iranians faced significant power outages, making it difficult to communicate with neighbors and friends—essentially isolating them even from those within the country.

Arabi explained that the purpose behind cutting off communications was to obstruct Israeli evacuation alerts and suppress news about attacks on civilian areas in Israel. “The goal was perverse,” he stated. “They aimed to instill fear and manipulate public perception. For days, no messages could get through, even crucial alerts from Israel.”

He further mentioned that the government aimed to dissuade people from gathering in public and disrupt the growing connections between Iranians and Israelis. “At the onset of the conflict, many Iranians welcomed the strikes because they understood Israel was targeting the IRGC, the very force responsible for oppressing them. Yet, when communications were cut and fear set in, people began to question the situation.”

Analysis from Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an authority on Iran and author of “Imam’s Vanguard: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Security Guard,” highlighted that maintaining strict domestic repression is part of the regime’s survival strategy.

“It’s simpler for them to control their people internally,” he said. “So, it’s not that Iran has become isolated in a new way, but rather that it mirrors North Korea more closely in its oppressive tendencies.”

According to him, tightening control over the Iranian populace may be the only strategy the government sees to sustain its rule, effectively staving off potential uprisings against the regime.