2024 was not a good year for Iran. Many of its proxy armies across the Middle East have been decimated by Israel, puppet dictator Bashar al-Assad has been ousted in Syria, and archenemy Donald Trump has returned to the White House.
The year of disaster for Iran really began on October 7, 2023, when the terrorist proxy Hamas committed unspeakable atrocities against Israeli civilians and started the Gaza war. Iran has spent decades and billions of dollars supporting terrorist groups, preparing for such a moment, but despite desperate calls for a ceasefire at the United Nations, Israel first dismantles Hamas and then They could only watch helplessly as they dismantled Hezbollah in Lebanon and acted with absolute determination. .
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued the first official statement on Monday. confirmation Israel carried out the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. Haniya was killed by a remote-controlled bomb shortly after attending the inauguration of Iran's new president, Mahmoud Pezeshkian.
Haniya's death was a major blow to Hamas' morale and a huge embarrassment to Tehran, which had offered protection to the terrorist boss. Katz on Monday deepened Iran's humiliation by casually acknowledging Israel's role in the assassination while threatening another Iranian proxy, Yemen's Houthi rebels.
“As the Houthi terrorist group fires missiles at Israel these days, I want to send them a clear message: We will defeat Hamas, we will defeat Hezbollah, we will blind Iran's defense systems, we will damage Iran's production systems. I gave,'” Katz said Monday.
“We overthrew the Assad regime in Syria and dealt a major blow to the axis of evil. We will also strike hard against the last remaining terrorist group in Yemen, the Houthis.”
“We will attack strategic infrastructure and decapitate its leaders. We will do it in Hodeidah and Sanaa, just as we did in Tehran, Gaza and Lebanon against Haniya, Shinwar and Nasrallah.” he said.
Hodeidah and Sanaa are two Yemeni cities controlled by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. In addition to removing Haniya's name, Katz also mentioned the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. killed In October, he was killed by Israeli forces while attempting to escape from Gaza, and in September, Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was eliminated by an Israeli bunker-buster bomb.
Katz's remarks were a nice summary of Iran's worst year, as it also touched on the situation in Israel. It's quick devastating October Iran Airstrike – The attack was carried out in response to two largely ineffective missile attacks carried out by Iran on Israel in October 2016. April and October.
Iranian propaganda takes pains to portray missile attacks against Israel as horrifying and devastating, but in reality, despite Iran launching a huge number of missiles and drones, it has minimal It caused only damage. Israel in return waltzed through Iranian airspace; excluded Air defense with surgical precision.
Taken together, the air and missile engagements between Israel and Iran were an impressive demonstration of near-total superiority on the Israeli side. This is very bad news for Iran. Iran's defense strategy is ostensibly based largely on its possession of a vast inventory of potentially destructive missiles. It causes great damage to any attacker. The biggest consolation for Iranian military planners is probably that their attacks were not effective. Fee Much less than Israel's highly effective response.
As Katz pointed out, Yemen's Houthis are effectively fighting the last battle in Iran's once-vaunted “axis of resistance” (a name Israel's defense minister derided as the “axis of tyranny”). He's an agent.
Iran has invested vast amounts of time and money to build Lebanon's Hezbollah into a force that can constantly threaten Israel with terrorist and missile attacks, only to monitor attacks on the Israelis. disabled Hezbollah leaders then used exploding pagers and walkie-talkies to crush Hezbollah ground forces in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah is currently in a ceasefire with Israel, and a “ceasefire” means “reaming and rearming” against Iran's terrorist proxies, but rearming is much more difficult now that Bashar al-Assad has been ousted from Syria. It will be.
Iran put a lot of eggs in Assad's basket, only to see them scrambled by a lightning attack by Islamic rebels in early December. rebel army I took it advantage About how Iran and Russia were distracted and weakened by wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Ukraine. This time they rolled the dice that Tehran and Moscow were too weak to save Assad, and the gamble paid off.
Write destination Foreign affairs On Monday, Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International Security Affairs said: fascinated By Iran's silence as the rebels destroyed the Syrian army and won victory in Damascus. iranian indulge After the fact, some complained about Western conspiracies, but even after spending up to $50 billion to stay in power, they didn't even bother waving goodbye to him on the way out the door. There wasn't.
Azizi posited that Iran is suffering from strategic turmoil as a result of enduring a year so bad that its political, military and theocratic leadership have no idea how to deal with its losses. . The fall of Assad represents a catastrophic failure to do what Iran thought it did best: fund, train, and arm local Shiite militias to protect its interests in other countries. did.
Hezbollah is central to Iran's strategy in Syria, with thousands of fighters sent to support the Assad regime over the past decade. After the death of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020, Hezbollah became the main coordinator of Iranian-backed militias in Syria. However, Israeli attacks on Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure over the past year have eroded leadership and left Hezbollah unable to provide further military or logistical support to Assad.
…Iraqi Shiite militias, which played a key role in the early stages of the Syrian civil war, had become distracted by domestic priorities and the escalation of the war by the time rebel offensives began in Syria in late November. He was wary of this and became reluctant to join the fight again. Cost of external intervention. This lack of reliable ally support limited Iran's ability to respond effectively.
Azizi noted that Iran's loss of Syria appears to have damaged its credibility with Iraq's Shiite militias, but he believes it will never be free from Iranian influence in its own country. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was surprised. Iran is on the brink of losing its reputation as an Islamic superpower, and will likely lose its position to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an upstart Islamist.
“Since the fall of the Assad regime, Ankara, currently the main backer of the Syrian opposition, especially the HTS, has replaced Tehran and Moscow as the dominant external power in Syria, limiting Iranian influence while allowing Turkish influence Expand your range of power There is growing concern within Iran that Turkey, emboldened by Iran's weakened position, will seek to increase its influence in Iraq, Lebanon and the South Caucasus at Iran's expense. ”Azizi wrote.
Iran has several cards remaining, including forging ties with Syrian Kurds seeking protection as Turkish-allied Syrian militias march against the Kurds. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei has called on Syrians to rise up against the group that overthrew Assad, but questions remain about whether Iran has enough resources left in Syria to support an ambitious counterrevolution. This seems like a hopeless gamble until you consider that.
Iran's final disaster in 2024 will be economic collapse, with schools, factories, and entire industries recently being destroyed. shut down Because the regime cannot provide reliable electricity. Donald Trump's return ends any hopes Tehran had for relief from Barack Obama and his foreign policy minions, who were eager to restore the nuclear deal that had enriched the Iranian people until Trump came on the scene. Break down. withdrew From May 2018.
As of the end of 2024, Iran's theocracy is at its lowest point since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and will likely soon face a leadership crisis to replace the aging Ayatollah Khamenei. 2025 could be a very interesting year for Iran.
