Simply put
- Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $122,000 last week.
- However, it has since struggled to maintain these gains and is now trading below $120,000.
- The question remains whether bullish traders can regain lost ground, but short-term outlooks have weakened slightly.
Bitcoin has made history with its remarkable rise, hitting over $122,000 last week. The big question now: can Bitcoin Bulls keep up their momentum?
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering just under $120,000, prompting traders to assess the market’s direction. Specifically, can Bitcoin stay above $120,000 by week’s end?
The forecasting platform Myriad suggests that opinion among traders is nearly split, leaning slightly bearish with only a 47% chance that BTC will remain above that critical price point.
Let’s take a closer look at the technical situation:
Bitcoin’s $120,000 Price Target: Bulls Face Critical Tests
Bitcoin is trading at $119,765, situated on a downward trend line established since July 14th. This setup presents an inflection point that could determine if BTC will surpass the $120,000 mark by July 25th.
Current odds have shifted considerably, but I find myself somewhat more supportive of bearish outcomes at this stage.
Trading indicators suggest that Bitcoin is at a price compression point on the 4-hour candlestick chart. This type of compression typically precedes significant price movements. If the indicators confirm a status of “on,” an explosive shift could follow as the phase concludes.
Right now, Bitcoin seems to be trading sideways, a pattern that has persisted since it broke the all-time high. Although it has tackled some minor resistance, calling it a bullish breakout may be premature. That $120,000 threshold is proving tough to clear.
The mean directional index (ADX) is at 13, signaling a weakening of earlier bullish trends. Generally, an ADX reading below 20 hints at unclear trends, while numbers above 25 indicate established patterns. Low ADX figures can create challenges for bulls as breakout attempts could lead to false signals.
The 50-day exponential moving average currently rests around $116,000, while the 200-day EMA is lower. This situation suggests a bullish inclination, especially if trades sustain above the 50-day EMA positioned within the upper range.
The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 59, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without indicating an overbought condition. RSI values above 70 may signify excessive buy conditions, while numbers below 30 suggest the opposite.
Given the current technical landscape, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will wrap up the week above $120,000, but of course, circumstances could evolve.
Traders monitoring the charts, however, face risks, with a low ADX and dwindling trading volumes potentially leading to renewed selling pressure, especially around significant price milestones.
Key Levels in the Near Term:
- Immediate resistance: $120,000 (psychological level and market forecasts)
- Strong resistance: $122,838 (historical high)
- Immediate support: $117,500 (based on volume control points)
Disclaimer
The views presented here are solely for informational purposes and do not serve as financial or investment advice.
