Back in April 2020, the world was really grappling with the stark realities of strict lockdowns to combat the spread of Covid-19. “Flattening the curve,” became the buzzword that year.
Fast forward six years, and those memories of school and business closures, mask mandates, and social distancing have faded, becoming rather unpleasant recollections. Covid still stirs up political tension, but it feels more like a challenge from the past now.
So, what’s changed? Have we, as humans, come to an understanding with the SARS-CoV-2 virus? Does this virus, which is associated with around 15 million deaths globally during 2020-2021, continue to pose a major risk? After two winters dominated by flu illnesses instead of Covid, are we now at a point where Covid feels more like a nuisance than a serious threat?
To shed some light on these questions, STAT spoke with various experts about their current perceptions of the risks associated with SARS-2 and who should still be rolling up their sleeves for Covid boosters. Many suggested that both humans and the virus have evolved considerably since SARS-2 first made its appearance. Now, for a large number of people, it resembles one of many respiratory viruses that can make us ill, similar to the flu or RSV. However, for certain individuals, Covid still poses a significant risk.
Here’s what they had to say about the evolving landscape of Covid and what it might mean for you.
Most people have some degree of immunity to the SARS-2 virus now
At the outset of the pandemic, no one had immunity against this new virus, which allowed it to create chaos.
Over the years, almost every person on Earth has developed some level of defense against SARS-2, either through prior infection, vaccination, or a mix of both. The only exceptions are infants in their first year or two of life.
There’s a decreasing number of people claiming they’ve never been infected—the so-called “Novids.” Yet, even within this group, most have likely encountered the virus at some point, often without realizing it.
This, experts indicated, helps explain why the threat from Covid has diminished.
Lia van der Hoek, a Dutch virologist, has been studying human coronaviruses since before SARS-2 arose. She tracked infection rates in a group of men in Amsterdam to understand immunity duration. In 2020, she cautioned against assuming we’d have lasting immunity post-Covid infection based on her research about reinfection rates with other common coronaviruses.
Van der Hoek believes the emergence of the Omicron variant shifted the dynamics, as it was better at evading immunity but typically resulted in milder diseases. The viruses we see now are mostly descendants of Omicron.
Regardless of the reasons, it’s clear: Covid isn’t the threat it used to be.
Fewer severe illnesses and deaths are being reported
According to the CDC, Covid was the third leading cause of death for those aged 18 and older in the U.S. in 2021. By 2023, it slipped to the 10th position, and in 2024, it was the 15th most common cause of death. Comparatively, influenza ranked 11th that year. Additionally, Covid dropped out of the top 10 causes of death for kids and teenagers by 2023.
Fiona Havers, a medical epidemiologist who previously worked at the CDC, emphasizes that Covid still poses a risk, possibly more underestimated than it should be.
She notes that Covid-related deaths often reflect vague underlying conditions on death certificates, similar to how flu fatalities are recorded. Consequently, the CDC employs modeling to estimate the true toll of illnesses like flu and Covid.
Estimates suggest that between 2024 and 2025, 45,000-64,000 Americans may have died from Covid. In the subsequent months, around 13,000-40,000 deaths are expected.
For perspective, around 100,000 Covid deaths were noted in the U.S. during both 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
“Since the pandemic began, the overall severity and impact of Covid has consistently diminished,” Havers remarked. “This last year has seen the least severe cases since SARS-CoV-2 emerged, which is encouraging.”
Similarly, microbiologist Stanley Perlman from the University of Iowa comments on how Covid numbers remain unexpectedly high. “If you enter an ICU today… you’ll likely find patients who aren’t dying from SARS-CoV-2,” he observed. “I can’t pinpoint who’s still dying, but there are still individuals being lost.”
Beyond fewer deaths and severe cases, signs suggest Covid may not be spreading as widely as before.
The WastewaterSCAN project, which collects samples from sewage facilities to monitor pathogens, indicates that current SARS-2 levels in wastewater are at an all-time low. Researcher Alexandria Boehm noted that this could mean fewer infected individuals or that those who are infected are shedding less of the virus.
Boehm also pointed out that past years typically saw summer surges detectable in wastewater samples by May and June. “We’ll just have to wait and see if that pattern continues this year,” she added.
Is it nuisance or peril?
Many experts agree that Covid might now be on its way to becoming just another seasonal respiratory virus—albeit with some important caveats. The risk still remains for certain populations, particularly the elderly, very young children, and people with compromised immune systems. Additionally, illnesses triggered by cold or flu viruses can vary greatly in severity; even COVID can hit hard.
Malik Peiris, a microbiologist, views SARS-2 as just another seasonal virus now. He stated that while new SARS-CoV-2 variants may emerge, the global population has built enough immunity that a new variant causing severe public health impacts is unlikely—though not impossible.
Virologist Vineet Menachery echoed this sentiment, stating that while new strains may effectively evade our immune defenses, the resulting outcomes appear to be milder. This trend places them alongside coronaviruses typically causing cold-like symptoms.
On the other hand, Ben Cowling from Hong Kong University is somewhat skeptical that Covid is on par with other minor coronaviruses just yet. While he acknowledges it’s reasonable to view Covid’s threat as diminishing, he feels it’s premature to categorically state that we’ve reached that point.
Van der Hoek diverges in opinion, asserting that Covid has simply joined the group of common cold coronaviruses. “It’s just number 5 among them,” she said. “If it isn’t as mild now as the four seasonal ones, it will be soon.”
Where risks persist and the need for boosters remains
Initially, Covid was deadly across all age groups. Now, the vulnerable demographic has narrowed.
Stanley Plotkin, a renowned vaccinologist, explained that Covid-19 is a mucosal infection that can affect those with weak immune responses. Most healthy individuals manage to fend it off, whereas the very old and very young may struggle.
This shift is evident in hospitalization and death statistics, according to Havers. “The trend of who is severely affected by Covid resembles patterns seen with other respiratory viruses, where the most vulnerable patients are generally at the ends of the age spectrum,” she noted.
However, severe illness and death aren’t the only risks related to Covid. Long Covid cases are still being reported, although their incidence has dropped since the pandemic’s inception—thanks partly to the believed protective effects of vaccination.
Serious side effects like myocarditis and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children have also decreased in frequency, according to Havers.
This begs the question of who should still be getting Covid vaccinations.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices had been working on new recommendations, aiming to narrow the booster eligibility—shifting from universal recommendations to annually suggesting shots primarily for older adults, very young children, and those with certain health issues. Others might be informed that the option exists if they wish. Various countries have already adopted similar strategies regarding Covid vaccinations.
The updated ACIP recommendations last September indicated that anyone aged six months and older could choose to receive a Covid booster, based on discussion with a healthcare provider.
Marion Koopmans, from Erasmus University, argued that annual boosters likely have less impact on those not at elevated risk. “We need to know how boosting affects variant-specific responses and long-term disease protection. But it’s hard to acquire such data,” she noted, highlighting difficulties in conducting studies.
Nevertheless, data suggests that Covid boosters still offer protective benefits against severe illness for high-risk individuals, according to recent findings in the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, the general public seems less inclined to prioritize Covid boosters now. Reports indicate that during the 2025-2026 season, remarkably low booster rates were recorded, with only about 9.4% of children and teens, 17.5% of adults over 18, and 22.1% of seniors having received boosters. In contrast, flu vaccinations saw markedly higher uptake among seniors.
Globally, Covid booster uptake has also significantly dropped. According to the World Health Organization, less than 1% of high-risk individuals in lower-income countries had received boosters in 2024.
In a further indicator of shifting priorities, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, halted its Covid vaccine purchases support for lower-income nations at the end of 2025.
