Bitcoin experienced a rise of up to 3% on Sunday, yet many traders remain unconvinced that the price downturn is over. Here are some key takeaways: comparisons of Bitcoin’s current price trends suggest a potential repeat of the 2022 bear market, possibly leading to new lows. The average cost and moving averages of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF are gaining attention. Notably, experts warn that mirroring the events of 2022 isn’t guaranteed. Some traders, including Filbfilb, shared charts indicating that Bitcoin’s final capitulation hasn’t occurred yet. Data from TradingView showed that Bitcoin traded above $71,000, marking a 20% increase from Friday’s 15-month low. Despite this volatility, skepticism remains high about the sustainability of the rebound.
Filbfilb noted the lack of positive signals for bulls, pointing out a chart that compares the current price to the 50-week exponential moving average, suggesting it hovers around $95,300. Analyst Tony Severino supports this view with various metrics that indicate a new price low is likely. Trader Bitbull echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the actual bottom could be below the $50,000 mark, which would put many ETF buyers at a loss. Presently, the average purchase price for a US spot Bitcoin ETF stands at $82,000.
Cointelegraph also highlighted key bear market indicators based on two trends: the 200-week simple moving average and the exponential moving average, which together create a support “cloud” ranging from $58,000 to $68,000. Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, expressed concerns that echoes of 2022 are evident once again. He pointed out that during May 2022, Bitcoin retested the 200-week moving average cloud, prompting bullish optimism. However, that rally quickly faded, leading to a price drop below the 200-week cloud in June 2022. “What are we seeing now?” he questioned, referring to the recent retest of the cloud. Franzen cautioned that while past bear markets can offer insights, the future remains unpredictable, admitting, “Nobody knows what’s going to happen next.”
