The earthquake that struck the East Coast earlier this month was felt by an estimated 42 million people and fortunately caused little damage, but what are the chances of a larger, more powerful earthquake hitting the region? If it does, what might it look like and are we ready?
The April 5 event was a magnitude 4.8 earthquake with an epicenter near White House Station in New Jersey, about 60 miles west of New York City.
The shaking was felt from Washington, D.C., to Maine and came after a much smaller magnitude 1.7 earthquake that struck New York City on Jan. 2, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
Earthquakes are rare along the East Coast, and in August 2011, the most powerful quake in the past 100 years occurred, registering 5.8 on the Richter scale. It was felt from Washington, D.C. to Boston, centered in Virginia.
4.8 magnitude earthquake hits New Jersey, shaking buildings in surrounding states
A man walks in lower Manhattan moments after a magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck parts of New York City and New Jersey on April 5, 2024.
Before that, an earthquake in South Carolina in 1886 is believed to have measured between 6.6 and 7.3 on the Richter scale. There are no definitive measurements of this earthquake, as the Richter scale has only been around since the mid-1930s, but the tectonic movement still killed 60 people.
Professor John Ebell, a seismologist at Boston University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, told FOX News Digital that damage begins to occur when earthquakes begin to exceed 5.0 on the Richter scale.
For example, the devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria last year destroyed or severely damaged tens of thousands of buildings and killed nearly 62,000 people.
The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California had a magnitude of 6.9 and killed 69 people, and the 1994 Northridge, Golden State earthquake had a magnitude of 6.7 and killed 57 people. Thousands more were injured.
“As you move beyond magnitude 5, the shaking becomes much stronger and you experience a larger area of strong shaking,” Ebel said. “So if there was a magnitude 6, the shaking would be 10 times stronger than a magnitude 5. So if this month’s earthquake were a magnitude 5.8 instead of a magnitude 4.8, it would have shaken unreinforced structures in New York City’s urban areas. area.
After the October 1989 earthquake, the facade of an apartment building in San Francisco’s Marina District was stripped away. (Photo by JONATHAN NOUROK/AFP via Getty Images)
“I have to qualify this here, but for the past several decades, New York City has included earthquake provisions in its building codes, while New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut have all had some kind of earthquake provision in their building codes. I have to say that we have adopted the seismic provisions of the version,” Ebel explained. “So the modern buildings that are being built today would actually function well in the shaking of even a strong magnitude 6 or magnitude 7 earthquake.”
As for the tri-state area, Ebell said there have been minor earthquakes in the area, but nothing that caused major damage.
The 1884 Brooklyn earthquake caused limited damage and injuries. Seismologists estimate that the magnitude of the quake that shook Massachusetts in 1775 was between 5.0 and 5.2, compared to 6.0 to 6.3.
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“In 1884, there were reports of things falling off shelves and some cracks in the walls, especially the stucco walls, which can easily crack when the building shakes,” Abel said. “Some of the brick walls had cracks and the shaking was so strong that people panicked.”
A magnitude 5 earthquake occurs once every 120 years in the tri-state region, said Ebell, who wrote the book “New England Earthquakes: A Surprising History of Seismic Activity in the Northeast.”
The map shows the location of Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, which the U.S. Geological Survey reported was the epicenter of the magnitude 4.8 earthquake that occurred on April 5. (Fox News)
“The question is, can we build something bigger? And in my opinion, it can,” he said. “We can’t predict earthquakes, and we don’t know when the next one will occur. However, there is a small to no chance that a damaging earthquake will occur at some point.”
Ebel said the April 5 quake puzzled seismologists because it did not originate in the Ramapo fault zone, underscoring how difficult it is to predict the occurrence of this phenomenon. The Ramapo Fault Zone is a series of small fault lines that run through New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. It spans more than 185 miles and was formed about 200 million years ago.
“Right now, it’s a seismic mystery,” Ebel said. “There are some earthquakes in our region where faults have not been mapped. But that is also true in California. Not all earthquakes occur on known or mapped faults in California, so many seismologists still have to learn the exact relationship between ancient faults and modern earthquakes.
Ebel pointed out that buildings are not the only thing to consider when an earthquake occurs. A California earthquake could collapse overpasses and bring down power grids, causing surges and fires.
Local residents walk in front of a destroyed building in Nurdagi, southeastern Turkey, on Thursday, February 9. (AP/Petros Giannakoulis)
In 1989, a toxic chemical fell from a shelf in the chemistry building and the building had to be evacuated, Ebel said.
“And think about hospitals and some industrial facilities being in that situation,” he explained. “So you have these things happening that are not necessarily catastrophic, but are a real problem.”
And earthquakes don’t necessarily have to rattle the land to cause destruction.
Shocks at sea can cause dangerous tsunamis, such as the one that occurred on the edge of the Grand Bank in Newfoundland, Canada, in 1929. It was felt as far away as New York City.
According to the International Tsunami Information Center, waves as high as 23 feet crashed onto the coast, killing up to 28 people.
“Tsunamis aren’t necessarily very likely to occur, but you have to think about that as well,” Ebel says in relation to the East Coast.
The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster was caused by an earthquake and subsequent tsunami.
Damage caused by the 2011 tsunami seen from a hill overlooking Kesennuma City. (Philip Lopez/AFP via Getty Images)
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Ebell said a tsunami similar to the one in 1929 could create a storm surge along the lines of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which killed 43 people in New York City.
“Although the threat of earthquakes is not as great as it is in California, we still have to take earthquakes into consideration in our emergency plans and building codes,” Ebell said. “State and local emergency management agencies in every state in the Northeast have an earthquake plan, or what we call a tabletop exercise, where they pretend an earthquake is happening.”
“Such preparations are carried out regularly,” he concluded. “Building codes are constantly being re-evaluated and approved for everything from earthquakes to fires and chemical spills, so we’re always better prepared.”
Marina beach in southern India after high waves hit the coast in 2004.
