Flu Cases Declining, But Caution Remains
Flu cases are decreasing, yet experts emphasize that the U.S. is not entirely in the clear. Tragically, 15 more children succumbed to the flu in the week ending January 10, pushing the total number of pediatric deaths to 32.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released data on Friday showing an 18% decline in confirmed flu cases from the prior week. Additionally, visits to doctors for respiratory issues fell by over 5%, and hospitalizations dropped by nearly 55%. However, there was a 2% increase in flu-related deaths.
To date, the CDC estimates that around 18 million people have been infected with the flu this season. Of these, 230,000 have been hospitalized and 9,300 have died.
“There’s some cautious optimism with the decline in cases,” noted Jennifer Nuzzo, who directs the Pandemic Center at Brown University School of Public Health. “However, I think we should proceed with a healthy dose of caution; it doesn’t necessarily mean we’re out of the woods yet.”
This time last year, flu cases also dropped only to spike again in early February.
The CDC data reflects a national trend, but it’s possible that some states haven’t yet reached their peak flu cases.
“We won’t all experience the same timeline,” said Beth Carlton, a public health professor at the University of Colorado. “While the national trend shows a decline, variations may exist across states and communities as the virus progresses.”
Flu outbreaks often start in heavily populated areas like New York City before spreading to rural regions later in the season. “The challenge is that flu can be quite unpredictable,” she added.
Even as flu cases decline, other winter illnesses—like norovirus, Covid, and strep throat—are leading to school closures in several states, including Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia, where overall cases are reportedly low.
Meanwhile, states such as Idaho, New Mexico, New York, and parts of Appalachia continue to experience very high flu activity, contrasting with lower reported cases in Montana, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.
“The number of hospitalizations around New Year’s was extremely high, second only to last year’s peak,” mentioned Carlton.
This flu season has been particularly severe, mainly due to a mutated strain of influenza A called H3N2 subclade K, which shares fewer similarities with the current vaccine strain. Nuzzo pointed out that flu-like illnesses, including RSV and Covid, are also unusually high this year.
Typically, these viruses peak at different times; “but this year seems a bit different,” she said, emphasizing the simultaneous peaks of various viruses, which have made this cold and flu season particularly challenging.
Initially, experts worried that the flu vaccine might not effectively address the subclade K. However, recent studies show that the current flu vaccine is indeed effective against this variant.
The vaccine this year targets three strains: two A strains (H1N1 and H3N2) and one B strain.
“Even with this K clade, we can still say the flu vaccine is beneficial, especially in preventing hospitalizations,” Nuzzo stated.
Last year was the deadliest flu season for children since the CDC began monitoring pediatric deaths, with 289 fatalities surpassing those during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
“The dual peaks of last flu season had significant repercussions,” Nuzzo reflected. “While I appreciate any drop in flu numbers, we can’t confidently say the worst is behind us.”
The new CDC report indicates that among children eligible for vaccination, 90% of those who died from the flu were unvaccinated.
Recently, the CDC changed its guidance, no longer recommending flu shots for all children. Previously, the advisory suggested that everyone six months and older should receive an annual flu shot.
