Ukraine and the United States are once again attempting to finalize a peace agreement to end the ongoing conflict with Russia, yet doubts linger about whether a resolution is still attainable following numerous stalled negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is set to meet with former President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday to review current proposals for peace. Since the initial deal was presented last November, significant revisions have occurred, primarily due to pushback from Ukraine and other European nations.
Despite setbacks in peace discussions over the past year, some foreign policy and defense experts suggest that Trump might still foster peace if he can persuade Putin that the consequences of war surpass any potential gains. However, it seems unlikely that any party will leave negotiations feeling content. As Morgan Murphy, a former Trump administration official and current Republican Senate candidate in Alabama, noted, “The president’s team understands the tough reality, but they also see a bright future for Ukraine once the fighting ceases. A vibrant, independent nation could emerge from the current devastation,” adding that an agreement will likely leave all involved parties unsatisfied.
Recently, Russia has shown signs of compromise, indicating openness to Ukraine’s European Union membership, yet Putin has not agreed to a temporary ceasefire. U.S. officials have claimed that the revised deal addresses “90 percent” of the issues between Russia and Ukraine, but they have refrained from detailing what remains unresolved.
Zelenskiy remains cautiously optimistic, discussing ongoing talks with Trump’s campaign on Christmas Day while emphasizing that some “sensitive issues” still linger. Although not specified, Ukraine has consistently opposed ceding territory to Russia and is seeking enhanced security assurances from the U.S. and European allies.
Many foreign policy experts caution that too many concessions to Russia could empower other U.S. adversaries globally, including China. Carrie Filippetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, remarked that “a rushed or weak agreement would seriously harm America’s national security,” as it would imply that aggression can be rewarded and send a message that borders and sovereignty are negotiable—a situation that would invite further crises.
Putin continues to relentlessly attack Ukraine amid these negotiations, focusing on critical energy infrastructure. Even while he pursues military success in Ukraine, former State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert argues that his actions represent not strength but a growing desperation to conclude the war before facing mandatory concessions. “Putin may believe he can still win, but his behavior indicates increasing desperation,” Nauert said. “In his case, peace doesn’t simply arise from demands for kindness; it materializes when he understands he can’t enhance his position by prolonging the conflict.”
The war has exacted a heavy toll on Russia, with casualty estimates for Kremlin forces exceeding 600,000. Yet, Russia has made gradual advances on the battlefield, recently taking the town of Siversk. Initially, after invading Ukraine, Putin anticipated a quick victory. However, a decisive Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2022 thwarted Russian forces, leading to an extended and fierce conflict.
Ukraine has held its ground at significant cost and requires substantial backing from the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. has committed over $180 billion to Ukraine since the war began in 2022, with Trump recently signing legislation that allocates an additional $800 million in aid over the next two years. Ukraine aims to secure better future security guarantees from the U.S. in exchange for peace, and U.S. officials have indicated that the new provisions promise mutual defense assurances akin to NATO’s Article 5, advocating for mutual defense in case of an attack.
Bruce Carlson, a retired U.S. Air Force general, emphasized, “Without a firm commitment from the U.S. and our allies to support Ukraine until a satisfactory peace agreement is achieved, I’m uncertain if that deal can be struck.” He added that during recent negotiations, Trump made several compromises. Ultimately, Putin will need to resell this newly revised agreement.
