The New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes will meet in the first round of the playoffs for the second consecutive spring.
Carolina won last season’s series 4-2, but it was much closer than the scoreline indicated, as the Hurricanes got lucky by winning in two overtimes.
But none of that matters now, as these two teams are in very different positions than they were this time last year.
Most notably, the Hurricanes are the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at most sportsbooks.
Carolina was considered a contender last spring, but there were question marks in goal and up front, especially with Andrei Svechnikov missing the entire postseason.
Those questions appear to have been answered with Carolina’s acquisition of rugged forward Jake Guentzel and the re-emergence of Frederik Andersen in goal.
Guentzel adds significant upside to an already deep forward group that includes Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas and Svechnikov.
Carolina’s 5-on-5 metrics have always been near the top of the league, but the addition of Guentzel will give the Hurricanes more confidence that they can turn their overwhelming possession numbers into tangible results.
Carolina’s power play has also improved significantly, which is no small feat considering the Islanders rank 32nd in penalty kill.
Carolina’s defensive corps is a deep and dynamic group with enough balance to play the unique chaotic brand of hockey that the Hurricanes enjoy.
Carolina totally deserves its status as a Cup favorite.
It’s a complete team, and if Andersen enters the tournament in his exceptional form, it will be a tough battle. But just because Carolina is the likely winner of this series doesn’t mean it’s a good bet.
The Hurricanes are currently -350 points ahead of defeating the Islanders in a best-of-seven series.
If you remove profits, the price has an implied probability of about 75 percent.
Does that underestimate the islanders?
The big question about the Islanders is which is the true version of this team?
Under Lane Lambert, the Islanders were terrible in their own zone and it was an exasperating roller coaster for fans.
Things have changed dramatically under coach Patrick Roy. The Isles play one of the best brands of defensive hockey in the NHL at limiting scoring opportunities.
Throw in some strong goaltending in Semyon Varlamov and the Isles could start to see a path to success in this series.
While the Islanders’ defensive improvement is now well documented, what has been overlooked is that certain individuals found their form at the right time.
Kyle Palmieri has always been a monster, while Anders Lee and Pierre Engvall have looked like a reinvigorated duo since Jean-Gabriel Pageau joined the third line.
Would you bet on the NHL?
Kyle McClain is also attracting attention as a fourth-line center.
How much have the Islanders closed the gap on the Hurricanes over the past month?
We can’t be sure of that answer yet, but we can be pretty sure that the islanders are in the minority.
A team that is physical, hard-working, defensively sharp, and has great goaltending will never be outed easily and will strengthen the Islanders’ depth.
So while it’s a monumental task to upset the Hurricanes, it’s not out of the question, and the +280 payout against the Islanders is worth a look.
