Brigadier General Amir Avivi (retired) warned Breitbart News in early September that Israel was likely to go to war with the Iranian-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon before the US presidential election in November.
Avivi, who heads the conservative think tank Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), said in an exclusive interview with Breitbart News: Breitbart News Sunday On SiriusXM Patriot 125 on September 5 (broadcast September 8), he warned that “war is imminent.”
Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones at Israel in October after Hamas, also backed by Iran, launched terror attacks on Oct. 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis.
To date, Hezbollah has fired more than 8,000 artillery shells at Israel, killing around 50 civilians and military personnel and wounding around 300.
under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701Hezbollah is not allowed on the Israeli border and must be disarmed, but this resolution has not been enforced. As a result, after the first Hezbollah attack in October, Israel had to evacuate 60,500 civilians, both Arabs and Jews, from 74 towns and relocate them to hotels.
Israel has repeatedly warned that it will launch an all-out war if Hezbollah does not stop its attacks and will hold Lebanon accountable for the terror group's actions.
The Biden administration has been trying to hammer out a deal in which Hezbollah would stop attacks on Israel in exchange for Israel withdrawing from strategic military sites on its side of the border, including Har Dov, a key lookout point on Mount Hermon overlooking northern Israel. Israel has rejected such an agreement, saying it would effectively cede Israeli sovereignty to Hezbollah, which is dedicated to destroying Israel.
Israel's security cabinet on Tuesday adopted the return of northern residents as a key objective of the ongoing war.
Asked whether a diplomatic solution was possible, Avivi said the chances were “almost zero.”
I think there is a recognition that we cannot bring civilians back without expelling Hezbollah from southern Lebanon. Right now we have Resolution 1701, but it is not being enforced. There is almost no chance that the international community can force Hezbollah to leave. So I think war is imminent. And we have to do it militarily. And when we bring civilians back, we have to make sure that they are realistically safe for decades, not that a year later they are being sent back to their homes in hotels because Hezbollah is continuing to attack them.
Avivi argued that Israel needs to become more independent from U.S. aid and be able to defend itself regardless of which party is in power in the United States.
But he also alluded to the issue of the United States not supplying weapons to Israel, a policy that President Joe Biden has adopted to limit Israel's war efforts and that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, vowed just this week to continue.
He said Israel's enemies see the period before the US elections as an “opportunity” and that Israel should see it the same way.
Asked if that meant Israel was likely to go to war with Lebanon's Hezbollah or Iran before the elections, Avivi said war in Lebanon was almost certain.
“I think Lebanon definitely does. They need to do that. I hope they do that, because if they don't, they're not going to bring their people back. [to their homes].”
Joel B. Pollack is executive editor of Breitbart News. Breitbart News Sunday It airs Sundays from 7:00pm-10:00pm ET (4:00pm-7:00pm PT) on SiriusXM Patriot. He is the author of the following books: Agenda: What President Trump Should Do in His First 100 Daysavailable for pre-order on Amazon. He also Trumpian virtues: The lessons and legacy of Donald Trump's presidencyavailable now on Audible. He is the recipient of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter. Joel Pollack.
