It’s a poll, not a crystal ball

Many political reporters and pundits are obsessed with election polls, acting like racetrack tipsters. But history shows that they and their predecessors have a long history of making wrong choices in race after race.

Horse racing is exciting to watch, especially when you bet on the outcome. However, those who have a solid lead all the way through do not necessarily cross the finish line first. Similarly, the candidate who is leading in the polls six months after Election Day does not necessarily win.

Instead of focusing on the things you need to know to decide who to vote for, many news organizations overuse polls instead of focusing on the candidates’ personalities, records of accomplishments and failures, policy positions, and other things you need to know to decide who to vote for. We place emphasis on Some are prematurely casting doom and gloom on President Joe Biden’s chances of re-election.

History provides some much-needed perspective.

pollster Gallup report Presidential polls conducted in June of election years show Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey leading in 1968, Democratic President Jimmy Carter leading in 1980, and Democratic President Jimmy Carter leading in 1988. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis took the lead, followed in 1992 by Republican President George H.W. Bush. None of these presidential candidates lost their races by decisive margins.

In that final 2016 election predictions, the FiveThirtyEight website predicted that Democratic former Secretary of State and First Lady, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D.N.Y.) would win. The paper cited 15 polls conducted in November, days before the Nov. 8 election, showing Clinton leading Donald Trump by 1 to 5 points. . Only one poll, conducted in November, showed Trump leading by just one point. Although Clinton won the popular vote, Trump was elected with a majority of the Electoral College.

2020 research The University of California, Berkeley examined 1,400 primary and general election polls from 2008, 2012, and 2016 and found that in the week before an election, polls accurately predicted the outcome within a margin of error. It was only 60%. In previous polls, the accuracy rate was even worse.

It is also important to remember that a small voting lead is effectively meaningless because it is within the margin of voting error. for example, RealClearPolitics average According to presidential poll results, Trump leads President Biden 46.6% to 45.7%, a difference of just 0.9 percentage points. This effectively amounts to a tie, not a lead for Trump.

Pole The report, published this month by the New York Times, showed Trump leading among registered voters and potential voters in five of the six battleground states that Biden carried in 2020. That alarmed some Democrats. A significant decline in support for Biden among black, Hispanic, and young voters is a decisive factor. Despite the concerns, Biden and his campaign are working hard to adjust the schedule and close the gap. event and media interview The aim is to reach these groups.

While many political news readers like me have been following the presidential election closely since last year, millions of Americans who don’t really care about politics won’t focus on November’s election until September. Please keep that in mind.

The Biden campaign is in an advantageous position to compete for the support of people who are slow to decide or don’t even know if they will vote.it has millions more Trump has spent more than $100 million in campaign funds on defense costs in civil and criminal cases, even more so than the Trump campaign. The New York Times reported March.

Biden campaign says It has opened more than 150 offices in seven battleground states and has more than 400 staff members, and plans to have 200 offices and 500 staff members by the end of this month. These staffers will be knocking on doors, meeting people where they eat, work, play, and praying and learning about what Biden has done so far and what’s next to build a better future for their families and this country. I’m talking one-on-one with people about what to do.

Biden is regularly participating in campaign events and giving more news interviews. black and hispanic Media — and showcase his energy, knowledge, experience, compassion, ability, and competence. union status March address. Although his appearance doesn’t make big national news, it gets a lot of coverage in local media.

Mr. Trump, by contrast, has spent most of his days in his hush-money trial in New York City, making hallway remarks to reporters and insulting judges and prosecutors between courtroom naps. He has been posting insults against Biden and haters on his own social media sites. He says this to his ardent fans: gathering And in right-wing media interviewbut they will vote for him no matter what he does.

Trump and the Republican National Committee, Skeletal field manipulation In battleground states.Trump has shown little interest in moderating his positions or actions to appeal to independents, people of color, and moderate Republicans (who continue to vote in primaries) for former challengers Nikki Haley) and others are being voted on.

By the time voters start voting early, Trump may be a convicted felon. Inflation may slow, the Israel-Hamas war may end, and voter turnout may increase with supporters of reproductive rights ballot measures. All these developments will help Biden. Conversely, other developments could help Trump.

This year’s presidential election will be a close one, decided by thousands of voters in each battleground state. There are no polls he doesn’t know what will happen six months after Election Day. But polls can help you understand where your campaign is strong and weak, allowing you to make adjustments to your spending, staffing, and travel costs.

Polls are campaign tools, not crystal balls.

I’m confident that Mr. Biden, his campaign, and the Democratic National Committee will work hard to win over undecided voters, blacks, Hispanics, young people, and everyone else. I believe that Mr. Biden’s victory in the presidential election will take away his many accomplishments as president, Mr. Trump’s many failures, and the crimes that the defeated and twice-impeached former president is accused of committing. He predicts he will win the presidential election by reminding the American people.

Donna Brazile is a political strategist, contributor to ABC News, and former chair of the Democratic National Committee. She is the author of “Hacks: Inside the Break-ins and Breakdowns That Put Donald Trump in the White House.”