The NFL has reached the midpoint of the regular season. Once this week’s games are finished, half the schedule will be in the books, which should make the playoff picture a little clearer. It’s also a useful moment to take another look at how teams are playing, beyond what the standings say.
Jacksonville looks well positioned to reach the postseason. Baltimore, on the other hand, has a much tougher road ahead.
The Jaguars are 5-2 and among the stronger teams in the AFC. They’ve gone 1-1 away from home, with plenty more road games still to come, which could become a concern. Their wins have come against Cleveland, New England, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. None has been especially dominant this season, though those are not all easy opponents, either.
Jacksonville’s losses were a three-point defeat to Houston and a road loss to Denver. The Houston game was played overseas, during the Jaguars’ second consecutive week in London, which wasn’t an ideal setup. I haven’t always been sold on Trevor Lawrence, but he’s been excellent this year: 17 touchdown passes, four interceptions and nearly 1,700 passing yards. This could end up being the best statistical season of his career.
Baltimore enters the matchup at 4-4, including a 1-2 record at home. There are several reasons for the Ravens’ uneven season, but Lamar Jackson’s absence is the biggest one. He was injured on the first offensive play last week. Jackson remains a remarkable playmaker when he’s available, but injuries have been a recurring problem. Baltimore then lost its backup quarterback a few drives later.
Derrick Henry has been terrific, but running gets difficult when defenses stack the box. Jacksonville is already strong against the run, and with Baltimore likely relying on a backup or third-string quarterback, the Ravens may have to throw more than they’d like. Their defense will need to help out. Baltimore has been below average against the pass, somewhat better against the run, and is giving up 25.4 points per game.
Jacksonville has its own vulnerability: the Jaguars rank 29th in passing yards allowed. Their run defense has been excellent, though, and they’re allowing 15.9 points per game. Those scoring numbers have been helped by wins over Cleveland and Indianapolis, so they may not tell the whole story.
Still, it’s difficult to see how Baltimore pulls this off. When Joe Fagnano entered last week, the offense managed 91 yards and he threw an interception. The Ravens’ only touchdown came on a Henry run after the defense intercepted the ball in the red zone. I’d take Jacksonville to cover the 10-point spread. It could get uncomfortable, but it’s hard to expect Fagnano to make a big enough leap on a short week.
