After months of financial scandals, cost-of-living crises and unpopular leadership, there are hopes for an end to Japan's beleaguered ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled for most of the past seven years. Some people may do so. Decades.
The general election on October 27th was largely held in the wake of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's sudden resignation amid record low approval ratings and public anger over his party's apparent dependence on “plutocracy.” It will be held one year earlier than expected.
His successor, Shigeru Ishiba, was chosen by party members and rank-and-file members last month to revive the Liberal Democratic Party's fortunes and extinguish the flames of a factional war in which Ishiba narrowly fended off challenges from the party's right wing.
But polls show that even amid political turmoil, many people go into the 465-seat Lok Sabha election with full confidence that the party will return to power for a fifth consecutive term. I believe.
Some opinion polls even suggest the Liberal Democratic Party will maintain a majority, supported by expected low turnout and a divided opposition party. According to a poll conducted by Kyodo News over the weekend, the Liberal Democratic Party's approval rating was 26.4%, far exceeding the 12.4% of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
However, the latest Nikkei Shimbun opinion poll suggests that the party may not be able to secure a majority, and the result “could set the stage for political turmoil not seen since 2009,” the economic newspaper said. states. House of Representatives elections.
The Liberal Democratic Party aims to maintain at least 233 seats to secure an outright majority, but this is a modest goal given its current total of 256 seats.
Prime Minister under pressure
The party's control over Japan's postwar political landscape was not absolute. In 2009, voters shockingly ousted the Liberal Democratic Party and established the center-left Democratic Party of Japan under Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. For the first time, the traditionally divided opposition party has achieved a level of unity that makes the Democratic Party a strong candidate in the election.
Analysts attribute the Democratic Party's victory to the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis, widening income inequality, a damaging scandal over the disappearance of millions of pension records, and the Liberal Democratic Party's highly unpopular Taro Aso. The analysis suggests that this is because the prime minister's cabinet approval rating has declined in the run-up to the election. Up to just over 16%.
However, the Liberal Democratic Party's time in the wilderness did not last long. Hatoyama's term lasted less than a year, and he was forced to resign after failing to fulfill his campaign promise to reduce the burden of U.S. forces in southern Okinawa. His two successors fared a little better, and normal duties resumed at the end of 2012 with the election of Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party government.
Tobias Harris, founder of advisory firm Japan Foresight, said that if the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito lose enough seats together and the coalition's grip on key parliamentary committees weakens, Ishiba will not be able to introduce the bill. He said it could be a struggle.
It would “not only fundamentally undermine his claim to be the party's electoral asset, but also jeopardize any efforts to cleanse and modernize the party and unify it under his leadership.” Harris said.
Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election raised hopes that a more peaceful Liberal Democratic Party would emerge from the turmoil of recent months. He is widely seen as a moderate alternative to his main rival, the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi.
A soft-spoken 67-year-old former banker whose hobby is building models of military aircraft and ships, he has expressed support for same-sex marriage, the current empress, and the right of married couples to have separate surnames. It brought about social and cultural changes that were opposed by public opinion.
Ishiba also vowed to take strict action against Liberal Democratic Party members who were found to have siphoned off unreported profits from ticket sales to party events as a slush fund, plunging the party into crisis. . Concerns also remain about the party's relationship with the scandal-hit Unification Church.
But in an apparent attempt to appease right-wing opponents within the Liberal Democratic Party, Mr. Ishiba has retreated since becoming prime minister, announcing in parliament last week that changes to the law on separate marital surnames, in which women almost always take the name of their husbands, and same-sex marriage. advocated a ban. “Further tests are required.” He declined to comment on the revision of Japan's male-only inheritance law.
Critics have also accused him of abandoning his promise to address the funding scandal. The Liberal Democratic Party has refused to support the 12 candidates found to have committed the most serious misconduct, but does not intend to oppose them in the election. Ishiba said that if he wins, he may be welcomed back into the Liberal Democratic Party.
A record 314 women will be vying for the seats, which are currently held by women. Just over 1/10 In the opinion of all members of Congress, dramatic changes in the House are not expected. About 10% of all candidates come from political backgrounds, including Mr. Ishiba, who “inherited” a rural seat in Tottori Prefecture from his father in 1986.
