Representative Jared Golden from Maine, who is considered the most at-risk House Democrat for re-election in 2026, is facing significant challenges in his attempt to secure a fifth term, according to new polling data.
As per a recent survey, Golden, aged 43, is trailing Republican former Maine Governor Paul LePage, 77, by a margin of 49% to 44% among likely voters. This survey, conducted in the Pine Tree State, was released on Thursday. Golden’s disappointing standings come amidst a serious primary challenge from a more progressive candidate for the first time in his political career, along with considerable financial backing from national Republican entities aiming to flip his seat.
Golden’s district is among the most Republican-leaning areas currently held by Democrats. Interestingly, in the 2024 election, Donald Trump won this district by a nine-point margin against former Vice President Kamala Harris.
LePage, who has not held office since 2019, had also claimed victory in the Golden District during his unsuccessful third-term bid against the Democratic Governor Janet Mills in 2022.
Polls indicate that LePage is generally perceived more favorably within Maine’s 2nd Congressional District compared to Golden, who only boasts a 16% approval rating among residents there. In fact, Golden’s net favorability stands at -25 percentage points, with a significant 40% of respondents having neutral opinions and 41% viewing him negatively.
In contrast, LePage’s favorability is slightly less unfavorable, with 41% of participants expressing a positive view and 51% negative, leading to a -10 point net favorability. Only 6% of people reported neutral feelings towards him.
Notably, nearly 60% of residents in the Golden District believe their representative doesn’t deserve re-election. Only about 25% of respondents, which includes merely 51% of Democratic voters, think he should remain in office for another term.
In early October, Maine State Comptroller Matt Dunlap announced his entry into the Democratic primary, despite pushback from established party figures who advised against his candidacy.
Dunlap is positioning himself to the left of Golden, criticizing him for voting in favor of Republican-backed legislation on multiple occasions. He notably was the only House Democrat to back a Republican spending bill to prevent a government shutdown, which went against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
The poll did not investigate a hypothetical matchup between Golden and Dunlap. Certainly, it’s an interesting dynamic at play.
Additionally, the survey indicates that in Maine’s Democratic Senate primary, Bernie Sanders-backed oyster farmer Graham Platner has a significant lead over Governor Mills, but not without controversy involving his social media history and tattoos thought to have offensive implications.
Platner has faced backlash due to some Reddit posts that featured inflammatory content, including self-identification as a communist and negative comments towards police and rural white Americans. These rebellious left-wing candidates have been involved in discussions about their controversial tattoos.
The American Action Network, affiliated with the Congressional Leadership Fund that partners with House Republican leadership, has dedicated a staggering $2 million this year in efforts to unseat Golden.
A spokesperson for the Congressional Leadership Fund, Lydia Hall, commented on Golden’s low approval ratings, arguing that he should consider stepping aside to maintain some dignity with his current 16% favorability.
To provide additional context, a previous poll from May suggested that among likely voters in the general election, Golden held a narrow lead of 43% to 48% over LePage. This comprehensive survey involved 1,015 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Research Center.
