The Week 1 overreactions reached a fever pitch Monday morning. Nothing gets more overanalyzed than the first weekend of the NFL season.
Regardless of the outcome of Monday night's game against the 49ers, the Jets will be the subject of overanalysis on Tuesday morning.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers had this to say about how the Jets will be evaluated following the result:[If] If we win, the headline will be, 'We're going to the Super Bowl,' but if we lose, it's just the same old Jets.”
I couldn't sum it up any better.
But sometimes an overreaction to a first game turns out to be correct. Here, we look back at the Jets' last 10 first games to see how they played out, how they were reacted to, and whether they were a sign of things to come.
2014: Jets 19, Raiders 14
This game isn't particularly memorable except for being Derek Carr's first game. The Jets won the game, but no one celebrated after the game. It was clear the Jets had problems. They committed 11 fouls and had two turnovers.
Those bad signs turned out to be correct: The Jets then lost eight straight games to fall to 4-12 and coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idziak were fired.
2015: Jets 31, Browns 10
This was Todd Bowles' first game as Jets coach and the first game with Johnny Manziel after Josh McCown was removed from the game. The Jets were dominated on both offense and defense. Led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the offense threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns. The defense forced five turnovers.
After this game, there was a lot of hope that the Jets finally had a capable offensive line, and that was indeed the case. The 2015 offensive line, featuring receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, was the Jets' best in a decade. The team went 10-6 and narrowly missed the playoffs.
2016: Bengals 23, Jets 22
The Jets came back with nearly the same lineup as the year before. Their offense faltered in the game, relying on three field goals in the red zone. Usually reliable kicker Nick Folk missed a big extra point attempt at the end. The Jets sacked Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton seven times, but allowed passes of 54, 54 and 49 yards.
The game was criticized, but there was a sense that the Jets would do something about it. In the end, they lost the season. The team went 5-11 and was forced to make major changes. It was one of the first signs that Darrelle Revis was starting to decline. AJ Green had 12 catches for 180 yards against Revis. It was his final season with the Jets.
2017: Bills 21, Jets 12
The Jets played badly that day, but that was expected. Remember, everyone expected the Jets to go 0-16 that year to land the No. 1 pick and their quarterback of the future (then projected to be Sam Darnold). These were not the Bills we know now. Their playoff drought was still ongoing and Sean McDermott was in his first year.
The Jets actually performed better than expected, finishing with a 5-11 record.
2018: Jets 48, Lions 17
Speaking of misleading season openers, this was it. Everyone was excited after a 31-point win in Darnold's debut, and fans were chanting “Jets” and Darnold's name behind the bench after he scored two touchdowns.
Hopes were high but ultimately fizzled: the Jets lost three straight games, finished with just three wins that season, and Bowles was fired.
2019: Bills 17, Jets 16
Adam Gase's debut was awful and a sign of things to come. The Jets blew a 16-point lead. It was CJ Mosley's first game with the Jets and he had a big game with six interceptions and a fumble recovery, but Mosley's injury early in the fourth quarter changed the game. The Jets lost six of their next seven games to finish the season with a 7-9 record.
2020: Bills 27, Jets 17
This may be the most deceptive score ever. The Jets were awful in this game. They fumbled three straight times on their first three drives, five total fumbles, nine penalties. Darnold was awful. There was no overreaction here. The Jets are 2-14.
2021: Panthers 19, Jets 14
Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson made their Jets debuts. The Jets came into this game with no expectations, and no one could change their minds. Wilson was hit 10 times and sacked six times, a sign of things to come for the offensive line. This game set the tone for a 4-13 season where better days always seemed to be on the horizon.
2022: Ravens 24, Jets 9
Lamar Jackson threw three touchdowns and the Jets were a disaster. Joe Flacco struggled in place of an injured Wilson. In the end, the Jets weren't as bad as they looked (7-10), but it was a sign they still can't compete with the NFL's best teams.
2023: Jets 22, Bills 16
It was perhaps the strangest season opener of all time. The Jets overcame a 10-point deficit to beat their division rival in overtime on Xavier Gipson's 65-yard punt return. But no one was celebrating. Aaron Rodgers ruptured his left Achilles tendon on the fourth play of the game, putting his season in doubt.
This wasn't an overreaction. The Jets were in disarray at quarterback without Rodgers, and the win gave the Jets false hope that they would actually be OK with putting Wilson back at quarterback.
