Kamala Harris continues to underperform across polls.
If you pick an average from a number of polling perspectives, including binary choices, multiple candidates, battleground states, and even individual battleground states, Harris consistently beats Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary in 2016. – Lower than Mr. Clinton.
So it's no wonder Democrats are nervous.
There's a reason the Harris camp suddenly made her available for softball media opportunities. Including his recent appearance on the CBS show “''.60 minutes” and “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” and ABC’s “The View” and even something as risky as Wednesday’s Fox News appearance.
strategy is gone due to Abraham Lincoln said, “It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to remove all doubt by talking.” Silence is a luxury Team Kamara can no longer afford. You can see why by looking at Harris' voting numbers.
RealClearPolitics National Two-Way Average for October 17th race The poll shows Harris leading Trump 49.2% to 47.7%. It's a close lead, but we still have a lead. There's no need to panic.
Wrong. Remember, Biden beat Trump by 4.4 percentage points. 2020s Although it won the popular vote, it narrowly passed the Electoral College. His margin of victory there came from winning Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin (43 electoral votes) by a combined margin of less than 77,000 votes.
The reason for Biden's relatively wide popular vote margin and narrow victory in the election is that he received surplus votes in California and New York, equivalent to about 4.4% of the total popular vote.
in 2016Hillary Clinton racked up similar surpluses in California and New York, but her overall popular vote difference was just 2.1 points (48.2 to 46.1 percent). she lost election Take a quick vote (304-227).
That Harris' current poll lead is slightly less than Hillary's 2016 popular vote margin is reason enough for Democrats to be concerned. But they are even more concerned because Harris' poll numbers are much worse than Biden and Clinton's at the same time in 2020 and 2016. Plus, she does it almost across the board.
RealClearPolitics' Oct. 17 national average goes both ways; vote It currently shows Harris leading the country by 1.5 percentage points. in 2020 Biden had a nine-point lead. in 2016 Mr. Clinton had a seven-point lead.
But the real story lies in the battleground states. RealClearPolitics October 13th Battlefield at the top The average poll shows Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 48.3% to 47.9%. At this moment in 2020This average gave Biden a 5 point lead.
Additionally, as of Oct. 17, RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading (albeit narrowly) in all seven battleground states, by just one-tenth of a point. wisconsin Recently. By contrast, Biden was leading in all seven states at this point in 2020, in some cases by several points. And Harris not only underperformed Biden, but also underperformed Clinton, who lost in 2016, in six of seven efforts (All except Georgia).
The danger is clear. Biden narrowly won in 2020 despite the coronavirus, social unrest, and pandemic lockdowns. Despite currently polling better than Harris (much better in some states), Clinton unexpectedly lost to Trump in 2016.
Democrats have only two hopes. One is that today's polls give a more accurate picture of the electorate, so Harris is at least closer to where she needs to be. The other is that by suddenly coming out of hiding and giving friendly interviews, he can persuade voters who may seem unconvinced.
Neither should be comfort to Democrats.
But hope is not a strategy. This is why Harris' campaign manager is being replaced. They know she is losing now and will lose in November unless there is significant improvement.
Today's polls speak volumes. The growing desperation of the Harris camp speaks even more eloquently.
JT Young is the author of the forthcoming book, “An Unprecedented Attack: How Big Government Unleashed America's Socialist Left,'' and has worked for more than 30 years in Congress, the Treasury Department, and the White House Office of Management and Budget. Has experience as a representative. Fortune 20 companies.
