Kamala Harris is the only Plan B Democrats have if Biden falters — not Newsom  

Marginalized Vice President Kamala Harris may finally tiptoe out of the political wilderness, though not through any effort of her own.

President Biden’s Accelerating decline in public opinion polls Opposition to Donald Trump not only causes anxiety for Democrats, but also opens the door to the possibility that Harris, and Harris alone, could replace Biden on the fall ballot. Her toughest competition is California Governor Gavin Newsom. not shown The poll numbers justify choosing him over her.

For the past three years, Ms. Harris has trailed Mr. Biden in both approval ratings and polling tests against Mr. Trump. Her performance was so low that Team Biden (presumably) gave the award to Pete Buttigieg. try out in the 2022 midterm elections. Mr. Newsom, along with other Democratic candidates, has raised his profile in case Republicans mount an outrage and inflict a fatal blow on Mr. Biden.

But that didn’t happen.to the republican party historically terrible First midterm election, fumbling for the ball. In the aftermath, all talk of a one-term presidency evaporated as scheming hopefuls rushed to declare their allegiance.

Now those days are over. Biden’s poll numbers have been dismal since the conflict between Israel and Hamas. He passed a key tipping point in November, moving into a position where he consistently lost Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, where he won 283 electoral votes to Trump. , which will bring victory in 2024.

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What politicians and pundits don’t seem to realize is that Ms. Harris has quietly risen in the polls and become a viable alternative to Mr. Biden. Recent results show that Harris’ favorability ratings are roughly tied with Biden’s, and that polling tests against Trump have shown her improving.

RealClearPolitics average Favorability rating is a bad result for both Biden and Harris, but the difference is getting closer, with Biden’s -15.5% versus -18.6% (Trump’s -12 points). But recent polls offer good news for Harris.of Recent YouGov benchmarks (Unweighted data) Biden has a 54% disadvantage, while Harris has a 52% disadvantage. The New York Times/Siena has a 54% unfavorable rating for Harris, compared to 57% for Biden. The Wall Street Journal similarly has Harris 3 points ahead of Biden. A YouGov poll shows that among independents, Biden has a disapproval rating of 62%, while Harris has a disapproval rating of 56%.

There is far less information in the voting test for Trump. Harris doesn’t usually take polls, but Emerson’s latest poll shows Trump’s support. take the lead Harris 46 percent to 43 percent. Mr. Trump defeated Mr. Biden 45% to 44%, not by much.Looking back at the last public opinion poll that allowed comparisons between Biden and Harris, in December Harvard University and Harris University Poll Trump’s approval rating for Biden was 48% to 40%, while Harris’ approval rating fell to 52% to 40%. Note that Trump was above the important 50 percent threshold. Since then, Harris has gradually gotten better.

The evidence is fragmented, with far fewer polls showing Harris against Trump nationally and in the state. However, what exists now shows that the gap between Biden and Harris is narrowing. Given Biden’s problems, Harris deserves more poll attention, and she’ll likely get it too.

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What does this mean for Golden State’s golden boy, Newsome? According to polls, nowhere.

There is little evidence that Newsom will fare better against Trump than Harris. Unfortunately, there are even fewer comparative polls for Harris vs. Newsom than there are for Trump and Biden. But nothing works in Newsom’s favor. To make matters worse, he may be able to compete in fewer states than Harris.

No public opinion polls have been conducted to compare favorability ratings since December, but Emerson/The Hill Voting Test Public opinion poll from February. The poll found Newsom trailing President Trump by a margin of 46% to 36% and trailing Harris by 7 points. And a series of state polls showed Newsom having a particularly difficult time in Arizona and Nevada (17 electoral votes).

Harris falls behind Trump by 48-40%. arizona against newsomeis between 47 and 34 percent.in nevadaHarris is down 9 points, but newsome It’s down 17 points. A particular problem for Mr. Newsom is that voters in Arizona and Nevada are likely to know him better than voters further afield. Because California is full of transplants and is well aware of the state’s problems, it is certain that those who have fled California will not vote for the man who has presided over the decline of their former homeland. That seems like a good conclusion.

And Newsom can’t offset those losses by showing strength elsewhere.he follows Harris It’s seriously in there georgia. The result appears to be a cap on Newsom’s potential electoral vote of 270, with zero margin for error. Newsom needs to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. True, Ms. Harris still trails Mr. Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, but she is more competitive than Mr. Newsom.

Newsom’s problems are contemporary and unique. budget deficit and problem crime, drug and Cost of living. Harris is further removed from California’s issues. She is somehow inheriting the Biden administration’s problems, but is it worse than what’s happening in California? Moreover, any successor will remain on Biden’s record unless his successor breaks clear and thoroughly with Biden, which is unlikely.

If the Democratic leadership caste is going to send the first black female vice president to the back of the bus, they better have clear and convincing evidence that she can’t do a better job than her successor. Dew. Right now, that’s not Gavin Newsom.

Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.