Updated Nov. 1: Kansas moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up, while Nebraska shifts from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Kansas is a deeply conservative state, but Republicans are devoting enough time and money to the race that it’s hard to say Sen. Roger Marshall has a clear advantage over Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts remains favored in Nebraska. Still, if the shift away from the GOP is bigger than expected, independent Dan Osborn could have a path to an upset.
The Senate remains a toss-up. Seven states are most likely to determine which party controls it. Democrats could reach 55 seats on a strong night; Republicans could hold on with as many as 52.
Two different midterm electorates?
It can feel as if there are two electorates heading into these midterms.
One is frustrated with President Donald Trump and ready to vote against Republicans. More independent, rural and Hispanic voters say they plan to support Democrats. Recent House polling reflects that mood: a survey last week put Democrats 11 points ahead on the generic ballot, and the latest national polling points in a similar direction.
The other electorate is less certain about Republicans but isn’t necessarily ready to give Democrats the Senate. These voters are concentrated in the Midwest and a handful of other states, where they may favor one candidate by only a point or two.
That’s broadly what the Senate battleground polls are showing. It may sound contradictory: if Democrats have such a big lead in House polling, why wouldn’t they also take the Senate? Both things can be true. The voters are the same, but this year’s House and Senate maps look very different.
Trump’s declining approval and Democrats’ advantage on key issues could help them win the House, potentially by a wide margin. Those same conditions have also made more Senate races competitive, including some Republicans once considered out of reach. But competitive doesn’t automatically mean Democratic victories.
The path to a Senate majority runs through several states Trump won by at least 11 points. Democrats could win any of them, but if Republicans turn out and stick with their party, Democrats face a difficult climb.
That’s why control of the Senate is still uncertain. Voters could give Democrats a majority, perhaps by several seats, or they could leave Republicans in charge. We’ll know soon enough.
What’s shaping the Senate races
In his 11 years in politics, Trump has weathered nearly every major threat to his influence. The coronavirus pandemic was a notable exception: it was the leading issue for voters in 2020 and helped bring Joe Biden to the presidency. It was also one of the few challenges Trump faced from overseas.
This year, Iran has emerged as a new foreign-policy challenge for Trump and Republicans. The administration’s decision to begin joint U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran in February has weighed on the GOP.
Trump’s approval rating, an important factor in many congressional races, has fallen since the war began. It stood at 44% in the final poll before the conflict and is now at 36%.
The conflict has also strengthened Democrats’ position on issues voters care about. In an October poll, more than two-thirds of respondents said they were concerned about inflation, gas prices, government leadership and the war in Iran. Inflation topped the list at 85%, followed by gas prices at 83%, government leadership at 79% and the war at 75%.
Voters preferred Democrats to handle each of those issues: by 16 points on inflation, 12 on gas prices, 11 on leadership and nine on foreign policy.
Even so, voters haven’t clearly decided that the Senate should change hands. Geography is a big part of the reason. Trump won seven of the 11 battleground states in 2024, and carried each of those seven by double digits: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Democrats don’t have to win every one of those states to take the Senate, but it’s difficult to see them reaching 51 seats without winning at least two. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is leading in Ohio, while the other contests remain close. Turnout, polling error or some combination of the two could decide them.
There are also plenty of undecided voters. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, recent high-quality polls show an average of about 10% of voters either undecided or unwilling to support the major candidates. Any prediction about where those voters will land is just that—a prediction. Past results suggest the overall electorate leans conservative, which leaves Democrats with more work to do to win those voters over, or persuade them to stay home.
Texas has fewer undecided voters. A poll last week found the race tied at 49% apiece.
If Democrats win only two of the battleground states Trump carried, they’ll need victories in three other contests where Kamala Harris won by single digits in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Democrats are ahead in Minnesota and New Hampshire, while Maine could go either way. The state tends to vote Democratic in presidential races, but it can look much more Republican when Susan Collins is on the ballot.
In this forecast, Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 45, leaving both parties short of a majority.
A strong Democratic night could mean victories in most or all of the toss-up races, giving the party as many as 55 seats. Nebraska could become more competitive in that scenario, and Mississippi might draw attention as well.
Republicans, meanwhile, could retain control by holding most of the seats they already have, reaching as many as 52. They also have a chance to flip a couple of states, including Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Senate rating changes
Five states have shifted in this week’s forecast.
In Ohio, Brown has led in three polls this year. The latest put him five points ahead of Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, 52% to 47%.
Ohio voters know Brown well; they’ve elected him to the Senate three times. That familiarity has made it harder for Husted to focus his campaign on socialism and what Republicans call “woke” politics, themes the party sees as strong messages elsewhere.
Ohio moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. That rating means the Democratic candidate has an advantage, though the race remains competitive.
Republicans had already been concerned about how close the South Carolina race could become, and that view now appears more widely shared. Trump returned to the state to campaign for Sen. Darline Graham in the Upstate, where she had a weaker-than-expected showing in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman.
South Carolina moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
Kansas moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Republicans are spending enough on the race that Marshall’s advantage over Hamilton is no longer clear.
Nebraska moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. Ricketts remains favored, though a larger-than-expected shift away from the GOP could give Osborn an opening.
Mississippi remains a Republican stronghold, but Trump’s decision to hold a rally there, rather than in another reliably Republican state, suggests the party sees some reason to worry.
Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney. The candidates’ choices around protein have become an unexpectedly prominent issue in the race.
Mississippi moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
House outlook
Democrats remain favored to flip the House in November. The forecast puts them at a minimum of 223 seats, with the possibility of reaching 240 if they win most of the toss-up districts. On an exceptional night, they could also pick up many of the districts currently rated Lean Republican, pushing their total as high as 252.
Republicans are favored in 195 seats. A strong night for the party could bring that total to about 212—six short of a majority. That would still leave the next Democratic speaker with a difficult job, balancing the party’s moderate members against its far-left wing.
Nineteen more House races have shifted toward Democrats this week. The changes reflect the same factors seen in the previous forecast: national and district-level polling, strength at the top of the ticket and weakening Republican support among rural voters.
The earliest-closing districts on election night may offer an early clue about the House. Kentucky’s 6th District is one to watch. It includes Lexington and a large part of central Kentucky, and Trump won it by 15 points in the last presidential election. This year, left-leaning college voters and farmers dealing with higher costs have helped make the race close.
The district moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up.
Ohio governor’s race
Ohio’s governor’s race has also shifted. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy drew attention last week after Ramaswamy ran an ad featuring Acton’s mother, who called her daughter a liar.
Acton has been estranged from her mother since she was 12. She has said that she and her brother left the family home because her mother’s husband was sexually abusing her. Her brother appears in a response ad discussing their family history.
The rating change isn’t mainly about how voters have responded to the ad. Ramaswamy and Trump support it, while Husted and Gov. Mike DeWine are among those who oppose it. The fact that the Ramaswamy campaign felt it needed to run the ad is also part of the picture.
Ramaswamy was two points behind Acton in last week’s poll, but he has trailed by an average of seven points in other high-quality polls since September. The businessman and former presidential candidate has struggled with his favorability ratings throughout his political career, and the ad is unlikely to improve them.
The Ohio governor’s race moves from Toss-up to Lean Democratic.
