No. 4 Kansas and No. 13 Samford will meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night in Salt Lake City.
Kansas has only been a No. 4 seed three times since 2005. Under legendary coach Bill Self and constantly under threat of elimination from the tournament, the varsity team disappointed down the stretch, losing four of its past five games.
However, the Jayhawks were without two stars, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCuller Jr., as they lost to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament. Dickinson should be available for the opening game, but McCuller has been ruled out and will not be available for the remainder of the tournament.
Let’s take a closer look at this interesting matchup and find your betting advantage.
Sanford vs. Kansas State Odds
| spread | total | money line |
|---|---|---|
| Sanford +7.5 (-110) | 153.5 or higher (-115) | Sanford +240 |
| Kansas -7.5 (-110) | Less than 153.5 (-105) | Kansas -300 |
Since the calendar changed to 2024, Kansas hasn’t been the same.
The Jayhawks went 12-1 in the first month of the season with wins over Connecticut, Tennessee and Kentucky, but were middling at 10-9 after the ball dropped.
I’m betting on the talent of this game as I aim for an over the game total. Oddsmakers are predicting a high-scoring game, as the 154.5 total is the sixth-highest for an opening game.
The Jayhawks rank in the top 60 in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating. They rely heavily on scoring two-pointers, and Self’s teams shot 54.8 percent from the field (ranking him 30th in the nation).
How will they fare against Sanford’s defense? The Bulldogs are well outside the top 100 in defensive eFG%, 2PT%, and 3PT%, but they send opponents to the foul line at a very high rate.
The Bulldogs’ offense could have far more success than their defense against Kansas.
Sanford makes 3-pointers at a very high rate, ranking eighth in the nation in shooting percentage from downtown.
That’s why 2P% in 20th place looks mediocre. This team can shoot at its best.
Sanford’s 3-point matchup against Kansas fits like a glove. The Jayhawks have a top-60 percentage on 3-point attempts and rank 168th in defensive 3PT%.
All of this seems pretty good for the offense in this game, but it gets even better because both teams like to play fast.
The Bulldogs love to push the pace, owning KenPom’s No. 14 adjusted tempo, and the University of Kansas ranks No. 92 in that category.
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The pace of play should be up and down in this matchup, with Sanford making a lot of quality 3-point shots on one team.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawks should overcome a Bulldogs defense that hasn’t faced a KenPom Top 100 player since Nov. 10.
The total started at 149.5 but was wagered as high as 154.5. It’s still 1 point lower at BetMGM and PointsBet.
Take over Thursday night with some fun late-night hammering.
Pick: 153.5 points or more (-115, BetMGM)
