The brutal militant attacks that killed 26 people in one of Kashmir’s most scenic spots have shattered the relatively calm calm in the region, turning popular tourist spots into a terrifying scene, and heightened the fear of fresh conflict between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan.
Shortly after the attack, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh vowed to a “loud and clear response” as gunmen emerged from a densely packed pine forest and their families picnicked their pony and fired them on board.
The little-known costume, known as the Resistance Front, has argued responsibility for the attack, but India believes the group is a proxy for the Lashkar Aetaiba terrorist group or Pakistan-based faction. Pakistan denies its supporter rebels, which it says supports Kashmir’s demand for self-determination.
The massacre rekindled tensions between the two neighbors. This has fought three wars over the territory of the majority of conflicted Muslims, and has approached several times.
An Indian security analyst who asked not to be appointed said the attack came a week after Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munier described Kashmir as Pakistan’s “neck” and promised “not leave the Kashmir brothers in a heroic struggle.”
“This is a very crucial moment for the region. We have two nuclear-armed neighbors staring at each other,” said US foreign policy author and South Asian expert Michael Kugelman. “All bets could be turned off.”
In the first retaliatory move, India announced the defence of Pakistan’s high lawyers, the expulsion of naval and aviation advisors. Closure of important border trading points. And – for the first time – the termination of the important Indus Water Treaty.
The treaty controls the shared waters of one of the world’s largest river systems that affect the lives of millions of countries, and India has never previously made a deal on “Abeyance.”
However, if terrorists wanted the attack to win support from Kashmiris or revive separatist sentiment, they were miscalculated: Kashmiri groups carried out a complete closure of stores and businesses to lament the victims, and locals chanted protest march: “Tourists are our lives.”
“Kasimiris is really appalling,” said Siddiq Wahid, professor of International Relations at Shiv Nadar University.
Since the anti-Indian rebellion began in 1989, radical violence has plagued Kashmir.
Thousands have been killed, although violence has been tapered in recent years.
Amid a controversial move in 2019, Narendra Modi’s government revoked the semi-autonomous constitutional status of Jammu and Kashmir, splitting the state into two federally governed territories. The government, known for accepting the primary political agenda of Hinduism, has allowed non-local land ownership to further integrate Kashmir with other India.
Security clampdown reduced militant activity and saw a surge in tourism – visited Kashmir Valley in 2024. Modi framed Kashmir’s “normalization” as a political victory.
“Unfortunately, this attack opens a hole in the government’s story of things being “normal,” said another Indian security analyst who requested anonymity.
Modi’s swift return from an official visit to Saudi Arabia shows the government’s determination to respond. The pressure is devoted to a strong response to daylight attacks in critically militarized zones.
Delhi may choose to strike across the border, like after killing 40 Indian paramilitary troops following the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing, analysts said.
However, this time the victims were not soldiers or security personnel, but instead they prosecute the situation more politically.
“India can’t put a thumbs on it. If the escalator ladder spins, it can get out of hand,” the security analyst said. “You can’t read Modi, you can’t predict a guy. He’s very muscular,” he added.
It is the timing of high-level US visits that enhance the political dynamics of the Kashmir attack. On his first official trip to India, US Vice President JD Vance praised India as a strategic partner, emphasizing strengthening defence ties.
In 2002, India and Pakistan were very close to full-scale war after the terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, when New Delhi criticized Pakistan-based extremist groups. The United States played an important diplomatic role in eliminating the crisis.
“The messaging we see points out that the US is completely turning its back on India and not hindering how India responds,” Kugelman said.
