They had no chance of winning.
in the final minutes of Monday night's game. Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia EaglesThe visiting Falcons were down three points, 18-15, and with the Eagles in tow, Atlanta probably had less than a 1% chance of winning. Next Generation Statistics, Probability of the Falcons winning with 1 minute, 56 seconds remaining Their winning probability modelwas 0.7%.
As we all know, the Falcons won 22-21.
Much will be said and written about how the Eagles handled the final two minutes of that game, from their decision to throw the ball in the air on third down to how the defense handled Atlanta's winning offense. But one thing is clear:
On that game-winning drive, Kirk Cousins proved exactly why Atlanta acquired him in the offseason.
The drive started with Cousins showing he can still throw the fastball. Atlanta ran a concept with three receivers to the right with RayRay McCloud breaking vertically, Drake London running a dig route underneath and Kyle Pitts running a curl route underneath the two.
Cousins felt the pressure coming from inside and evaded it to his right, making a pass to Pitts that moved the chains with ease.
But with no timeouts and under 90 seconds left, the Falcons go into turbo mode. Cousins drives the Atlanta offense back to the line of scrimmage on the next play, the first of two big connections on the drive to Darnell Money. The receiver runs a deep outside route in front of his defender and makes a sliding catch of a big pass from Cousins.
A 21-yard gain put Atlanta in Philadelphia territory, but with the clock ticking, Cousins led the Falcons back to the line of scrimmage and snapped the ball with 56 seconds left in the game.
The play? Another breakout route by Mooney, this time against the tight defense of Eagles cornerback Quinion Mitchell, a first-round draft pick from last spring. Cousins threw it perfectly in the shoebox, and Mooney spun away from Mitchell, gaining some extra yardage before eventually falling out of bounds to stop the clock.
Mooney's pass was equally impressive, highlighting the rookie cornerback's inside strength before slipping out to the outside, allowing Cousins plenty of distance to throw this pass.
With 46 seconds left and Atlanta facing a 1st-and-10 situation at the Eagles' 12-yard line, the clock was running down. The Falcons got a chance to go in the huddle, with Pitts running a corner route and Drake London releasing in the flat to dial in a flat-seven smash concept to the left side.
Pitts' coverage in the back of the end zone was solid and Cousins threw an underthrow to London for a short gain, but the receiver went out of bounds and the clock stopped again.
Facing 2nd-and-5 at the Eagles' 7-yard line, Atlanta gets another chance to huddle and on the next play they come out in a 2×2 formation. Pitts and London are stacked on the left side of the formation, with Pitts running another corner route and London checking into a curl route. On the right side, Mooney and McCloud are stacked, with Mooney off the line and outside McCloud. Taking advantage of the traffic McCloud has created, he breaks out from underneath and McCloud runs a skinny post route:
McLeod has an advantage inside against Avonte Maddox and Cousins shoots him in. There's a lot of contact, the pass is incomplete and there's no flag.
Third down.
But the incomplete pass gave the Falcons another opportunity to huddle, and they broke it with the three right receivers — Pitts, London and McCloud — at first on the inside but then moved to the outside, leaving Pitts on the inside and McCloud in the middle.
The cornerbacks collide and Darius Slay responds by sliding to the outside of London.
While both Pitts and London break inside on two slant routes, London jab-steps inside before breaking to the front pylon. At the exact moment London breaks, Slay has his eyes on the other two routes, and that's all it took for Cousins and London to connect for the game-winning touchdown.
Slay acknowledged on social media after the game:
That's my treat, Philly!! You owe it to me. Dammit!!!!!
— Darius Slay (@bigplay24slay) September 17, 2024
Cornerback confessions aside, the timing and anticipation of the pass must be evaluated. Let's look at the state of play when Cousins released this pass.
London hasn't turned around yet, Slay is looking inside, Cousins is releasing the ball. This play, this drive, is textbook Cousins.
Of course, much of the postgame talk has focused on the Eagles, including Saquon Barkley's drop on third down and 3-yards to stop the clock and set the stage for this drive, and how Philadelphia's secondary played on Atlanta's final attack.
Still, you can admit that this was what the Falcons were hoping for. When Atlanta signed Cousins to a four-year deal that included $50 million in a signing bonus and $100 million in guaranteed money worth up to $180 million, this was the kind of moment they envisioned: a perfect game-winning drive and the ability to snatch victory from the brink of defeat.
Something Falcons fans have been waiting for for a long time.
